## ISPOR Session on Bayesian & Markov Modelling: A Case Study on Vaccination

#### 3 October 2018

In October, ISPOR Philippines hosted a session on Bayesian and Markov Modelling. The activity focused on the application of computational statistics in actual health care problems. Using computational statistics, health policymakers are able to better quantify the cost of living for use in decision making.

Two methods were presented:

1. Bayesian Statistics – based from Bayes theorem, which is a mathematical formula for
determining conditional probability. It provides a way to revise existing predictions or theories
given new or additional evidence. Bayesian statistics uses observed probabilities.

P(Died|Vaccinated) = P(Died) x P(Vaccinated\Died)

P(Vaccinated

2. Monte Carlo Simulation – studies a system through simulation and random sampling. It is a
system that can predict how likely the resulting outcomes are.

P(Died|Vaccinated) = Number of died and vaccinated
Number of Vaccinated

A case study was used to demonstrate the two methods discussed: “If you’ve been vaccinated by
Vaccine A, what are the chances of dying from the disease it was trying to prevent?”

Points raised during the discussion included:

1. With newer data, the formula can be revised to increase the accuracy of results, which can better
reflect real-life scenarios. For example, if there are data on the doses (single dose vs 2 doses
vs completed vaccination), vaccine failure, these can be included in the computation.
2. Results will rely on assumptions; better data will lead to more accurate and precise results.

### Health Economics and Outcomes Research (HEOR): Modelling in Practice

#### 8 August 2018, 2-5:30PM

ISPOR Philippines Chapter held a workshop on HEOR: Modelling in Practice that consisted of a lecture and 2 workshops. The lecture was presented by Caitlin Asjes, Head of Public Policy, Becton Dickinson. She discussed understanding the different applications for HEOR modelling, gaining practical experience, learning the basics of Markov modelling, and how to apply Excel VBA to improve model usability.

Both workshops guided participants in a theoretical experiment where participants utilized the topics discussed as well as discussed Microsoft Visual Basic Application and programming language.

## ISPOR Philippines Chapter: Update!

#### Health Economics and Outcomes Research (HEOR) Modelling in Practice

8 August, 1:30-6:40 PM

#### HTA Demystified: post session

News! ISPOR Philippines Chapter recently conducted an HTA session at the Asian Institute of Management on 20 June 2018.

The session was attended by over 60 people from Industry, civil society, academia and a few government representatives.  The session covered HTA work from the perspectives of a new unit formed in the Department of Health and their roles in providing results of scientific evidence and recommendations for access, following by the National Health Insurance Program and how they utilized HTA to benefit their decision making for insurance packages. This was followed by a talk from the Philam Life Foundation where they are commencing a new Cancer Registry and how this might be of benefit to various stakeholders.  The last speaker was from the Philippine Alliance of Patient Organizations and whether there is room for civil society consultation in health decision making.

From the question and answer segment, there were complex and difficult questions asked on market access, equitable allocation of funding based on prioritization and neglected medical conditions, the conflicts from policy with realities.  For example, in final decision making for publicly funded access to medicines, should the social determinants of health be in the equation on top of HTA analysis?

It was obvious that there is still a huge gap in society in appreciating the work of HTA and an opportunity to strategically communicate the role of HTA to a wider audience.

### Demystifying Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Forum

#### 20 June 2018, Asian Institute of Management (AIM), 4:00-6:00 PM

News! ISPOR Philippines Chapter will be hosting an HTA Forum titled "Demystifying Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Forum". This forum aims to present the current landscape of Philippine Health Technology Assessment and its impact on supporting a policy environment conducive to the attainment of Universal Healthcare.

Presentations and panel discussion will feature different perspectives and current HTA programs from representatives of Department of Health, Philippine Health Insurance Corporation, academe and the private sector.

Panelists:

Ms. Diana Beatriz S. Bayani, MsC
Health Technology Assessment & Clinical Practice Guidelines
Health Policy Development and Planning Bureau
Department of Health (DOH)

Ms. Merla Rose Reyes
Chief Social Insurance Officer, Benefits Development and Research Department
Philippine Health Insurance Corporation (PHIC)

Mr. Carlo Irwin Panelo, MD, MA Economics
Professor
Department of Clinical Epidemiology
University of the Philippines, Manila

Mr. Max Ventura
President and CEO
Philam Foundation, Inc.

Registration is free.  Please register on or before Monday, June 18 through the link below.

Register here!

## Contact Information

ISPOR Philippines Regional Chapter Office
Kenneth Hartigan-Go, MD, MD (UK)
Associate Professor
Stephen Zuellig School of Development Management
Asian Institute of Management
Makati City, 1229 Metro Manila, Philippines
Email: KHGo@AIM.EDU

 President Dr. Kenneth Hartigan-Go President-Elect Secretary/Treasurer Mr. Teodoro Padilla Director Dr. Melissa Guerrero Director Dr. Cristobal Dumo, Jr.

More Details

### Annual Reports

2018 ISPOR Philippines: HTA demystified

2018 ISPOR Phillipines: HTA demystified

Health Services & Outcomes Research Training Workshop in October 2014