MOTIVATION: Chronic diseases account for 74% of deaths globally. They develop and worsen with higher age. The number of older individuals in Western societies is expected to increase significantly, denoting the rise in healthcare demand. Many chronically ill patients require inpatient treatment, often due to unavailable or inaccessible primary care. Linked to the quality and access of primary care, potentially avoidable hospitalisations (PAHs) serve as a useful indicator for estimating chronic disease burden and the quality of primary care services.

OBJECTIVES: This study quantifies PAHs and associated resources, measured in bed capacities and healthcare expenditures in Switzerland between 2012 and 2032 for two respiratory and two cardiovascular diseases, and type 2 diabetes. We aim to evaluate health and financial burden on the healthcare system and identify factors driving the change in PAHs.

METHODS: We developed a matching algorithm to identify PAHs in hospital routine data from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office. We derived the number of occupied hospital beds and expenditures. Regression analysis was employed to identify factors underlying changes in PAHs.

RESULTS: In 2018, PAH cases in Switzerland accounted for 40.2 k, projected to double by 2032. The need for PAH-related beds was 1,300 in 2018 and is expected to surpass 1,700 beds by 2032. The financial burden of PAHs was 430M Swiss francs (CHF) in 2022 and projected to exceed 590M CHF by 2032. Regression analysis indicates demographic change as a main driver of rising PAHs.

CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate a significant increase in PAHs and associated resources, likely leading to unmet demand by supply in the near future, and resulting in worsened quality and access to healthcare services. Effective primary care and improved patient self-management are crucial for managing chronic conditions and reducing PAHs. Our study provides a detailed financial analysis of PAHs, offering valuable insights for healthcare stakeholders.