Abstract

Objective

Reduced mortality with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) lung cancer screening was demonstrated in a large randomized controlled study of high-risk individuals. Cost-effectiveness must be assessed before routine LDCT screening is considered. We aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of LDCT lung cancer screening in Israel.

Methods

A decision analytic framework was used to evaluate the decision to screen or not screen from the health system perspective. The screening arm included 842 moderate-to-heavy smokers aged 45 years or older, screened at Hadassah-Hebrew University Medical Center from 1998 to 2004. In the usual-care arm, stage distribution and stage-specific life expectancy were obtained from the Israel National Cancer Registry data for 1994 to 2006. Lifetime stage-specific costs were estimated from medical records of patients diagnosed and treated at Hadassah Medical Center in the period 2003 to 2004. The analysis considered possible biases—lead time, overdiagnosis, and self-selection. Cost per quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY) gained by screening was estimated.

Results

Base-case incremental cost per QALY gained was $1464 (2011 prices). Extensive sensitivity analysis affirmed the low cost per QALY gained. The cost per QALY gained is lower than $10,000 with probability 0.937 and is lower than $20,000 with probability 0.978.

Conclusions

Our analysis suggests that baseline LDCT lung cancer screening in Israel presents a good value for the money and should be considered for inclusion in the National List of Health Services financed publicly.