ESTIMATING THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND OF BUTANTAN DENGUE VACCINE IN BRAZIL

Author(s)

Garcia CR1, Wilson-Barthes M1, Coelho GE2, Domingues C2, Constenla DO1
1Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA, 2Ministério da Saúde, Brasilia, Brazil

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the demand, implementation costs, and economic impact of Butantan’s one-dose tetravalent dengue vaccine in Brazil.  METHODS: We modeled the supply and demand of dengue vaccine nationally and for 6 key states using an existing strategic demand forecasting model. Input parameters on disease burden, vaccine product and pricing, production capacity, introduction strategies, and implementation costs were derived from local Brazilian stakeholders. Country-specific epidemiological data were obtained from disease reporting systems. Algorithms were developed to model 30 year dengue vaccine demand, total implementation cost, and vaccine impact using different age group introduction scenarios. Brazil’s highest dengue burden is among adults 19-46, and strategies targeting adults were modeled with the traditional child population. RESULTS: Initial strategies targeting all ages or ≥15 year olds exceeded capacity and were considered not feasible. The demand for all strategies was below capacity for all scenarios, but by year 2048, the demand including boosters exceeds capacity for adult scenarios except for ages 19-31 (86.73M) and 31-46 (117.06M). At $5 per dose, the average annual total cost of introduction ranged from $21.05-$322.21M in the first 10 years and $52.58-844.13M in the last 10 years. The most affordable scenario is children 1-2 years, but this scenario had little impact on the disease burden (34% reduction in last 10 years). The combination scenario (staggered vaccine introduction for 2-46 year olds for 5 years followed by 1-2 year olds) has the greatest impact with 90% and 79% reduction in cases and deaths respectively, and 84% annual treatment cost savings. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccinating adults followed by children yields the greatest vaccine impact. Vaccine price, introduction strategies, age, and production capacity are major drivers of the demand and require consideration when deciding vaccine introduction. Dengue vaccine has the potential to reduce cases and associated costs substantially based on various introduction scenarios.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2015-09, ISPOR Latin America 2015, Santiago, Chile

Value in Health, Vol. 18, No. 7 (November 2015)

Code

IN3

Topic

Economic Evaluation

Topic Subcategory

Cost/Cost of Illness/Resource Use Studies

Disease

Infectious Disease (non-vaccine)

Explore Related HEOR by Topic


Your browser is out-of-date

ISPOR recommends that you update your browser for more security, speed and the best experience on ispor.org. Update my browser now

×