Updated Estimations of the HPV Vaccination Deficit Among Girls in Greece: Early Signs of Recovery?


Gountas I1, Skroumpelos A1, Trimis G1, Markoulatos N1, Sabale U2, Salomonsson S3, Saxena K4, Poughias L1, Karokis A1
1MSD Greece, Athens, Greece, 2MSD, Stockholm, Sweden, 3MSD, Center for Observational and Real-World Evidence (CORE), Stockholm, Sweden, 4Merck & Co. Inc, Rahway, NJ, USA

Presentation Documents

OBJECTIVES: Due to the high HPV vaccination coverage reduction caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in Greece, a catch-up initiative was designed to run until 12/2023. However, our latest analysis (Gountas et al. EPSID 2023) highlighted that despite the ongoing catch-up, the HPV vaccination dose deficit had been increasing, reaching at the end of 2022, 4.7-7.0 months of vaccination of 2019 (e.g., 40-58.3% of the 2019 vaccination doses). This study aims to update the HPV vaccination deficit estimation and assess the progress of the running catch-up.

METHODS: A published calculator (Saxena et al. CMRO 2021) was populated with local HPV vaccine sales data. Until 04/2022, when the Greek National Immunization Committee introduced gender-neutral HPV vaccination, only girls were eligible for HPV vaccination, hence, the dose deficit was only attributed to girls. To exclude boys’ vaccination after 04/2022, three scenarios were examined: 35%, 50%, and 65% of the observed HPV sales data were assumed to be attributed to girls. The accumulated deficit was expressed as a function of months of the last pre-pandemic year (e.g., 2019).

RESULTS: The estimated accumulated deficit at 03/2023 ranges between 4.6-6.5 months. To clear the HPV deficit by the end of 2024, yearly administered doses should be increased by 110% compared to 2023. Compared to a scenario with a catch-up program ending in 2024, expanding the catch-up program until 2025 would reduce the annual number of doses by 18%.

CONCLUSIONS: Although the existence of some early signs of recovery, our estimates showed that a substantial increase in the number of HPV vaccine doses is required to clear the dose deficit by the end of 2024. Expanding the catch-up program until the end of 2025 along with interventions to increase catch-up effectiveness is required to make HPV vaccine deficit elimination a more realistic target and prevent future HPV-related morbidity and mortality.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2023-11, ISPOR Europe 2023, Copenhagen, Denmark

Value in Health, Volume 26, Issue 11, S2 (December 2023)





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