OBJECTIVES: The health and environmental impacts of bushfires result in substantial economic costs to society. The present analysis sought to estimate the burden of bushfires in Australia over ten years, from 2021 to 2030 inclusive.

METHODS: A dynamic model with yearly cycles was constructed to simulate the follow-up of the entire Australian population over ten years from 2021 to 2030, capturing deaths and years of life lived. Estimated numbers of bushfire-related deaths, costs of related hospitalisations, and broader economic costs were derived from published sources. A 5% annual discount rate was applied to all costs incurred and life years lived from 2022 onwards. The cost of each year lived by an Australian, from a societal perspective, was based on the Australian Government’s ‘value of statistical life year’ (AU$220,000). Sensitivity and scenario analysis were undertaken to test the robustness of the modelled results.

RESULTS: Over the ten years from 2021 to 2030 inclusive, the modelled analysis predicted that 2418 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2412 - 2422] lives would be lost to bushfires, as well as 8590 [95% CI 8573 - 8606] years of life lost (discounted). Healthcare costs arising from deaths from smoke-related conditions and hospitalisations amounted to AUD $110 million [95% CI 91-129 million] (discounted). The impact on gross domestic product (GDP) totalled AUD $17.2 billion (discounted). A hypothetical intervention that reduces the impact of bushfires by 10% would save $11 million in healthcare costs and $1.7 billion in GDP.

CONCLUSIONS: The health and economic burden of bushfires in Australia looms large during 2021 and 2030. This underscores the importance of actions to mitigate bushfire risk.