Lenahan K1, Stroup AM2, Demissie K3
1ISPOR, Lawrenceville, NJ, USA, 2Rutgers School of Public Health, Piscataway, NJ, USA, 3SUNY Downstate Health Sciences University, Brooklyn, NY, USA

OBJECTIVES: Human papillomaviruses (HPV) cause 99% of all cervical cancers, which is the 2nd most common cancer in women in Ethiopia. About 31.5 million women in Ethiopia are at risk of contracting HPV and about 70% of women diagnosed with cervical cancer die from the disease. This study estimates the percent of women immune and number of cervical cancer cases potentially averted through the introduction of a full HPV vaccination program in Ethiopia.

METHODS: Immunity of females in Ethiopia was calculated based on 5 different age cohorts (10-14, 15-19, 20-24, 10-19, and 10-24) at different vaccination rates. Adjustments were made based on the number of doses received and the efficacy of each dose. We also adjusted for age contamination. Three different approaches were then used based on previous literature to estimate the number of cancer cases averted based on vaccine efficacy.

RESULTS: For girls aged 10-14 in Ethiopia, more than 5.9 million (88.40%) will be immune to HPV at 100% vaccination. The percent immune declines to 68.68% and 33.02% for girls aged 15-19 and 20-24, respectively, due to age contamination. A more realistic vaccination number of 50% leads to 2.9 million (44.20%) girls aged 10-14 being immune. When vaccine effectiveness varies between 80-99%, between 5,035 and 6,231 cases of cervical cancer may be prevented each year.

CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of a population-based HPV vaccination program in Ethiopia will lead to lower HPV infections, thereby reducing cervical cancer risk and burden. More cancer cases are averted with higher vaccination rates in the population. It is important to vaccinate women at a younger age to protect against HPV infections.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2019-11, ISPOR Europe 2019, Copenhagen, Denmark




Clinical Outcomes, Epidemiology & Public Health, Health Policy & Regulatory

Topic Subcategory

Health Disparities & Equity, Public Health, Relating Intermediate to Long-term Outcomes


Oncology, Vaccines

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