Building Bridges: What Pandemic Preparedness Can Learn From Real-Option Value Analyses of Water Infrastructure in the Netherlands
Author(s)
Schöttler M1, Van der Pol S2, van der Schans S3, Boersma C4
1Health-Ecore B.V., Zeist, UT, Netherlands, 2Health-Ecore B.V., Groningen, GR, Netherlands, 3University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, GR, Netherlands, 4University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Zeist, UT, Netherlands
Presentation Documents
OBJECTIVES:
Vaccines have proven to be an effective intervention in responding to infectious disease outbreak situations. Policymakers struggle with quantifying value under the inherently uncertain nature such outbreak situations. Wet infrastructure in the Netherlands is faced with a comparable level of uncertainty, which led to local analysts adopting real option (RO) value analyses to evaluate investments in potential projects. The aim of this study is to exemplify methods to apply RO value analysis for infectious disease prevention, by highlighting lessons learnt from Dutch wet infrastructure.METHODS:
A literature search was performed focussing on applied RO value methods to Dutch wet infrastructure. Subsequently, lessons were derived applicable to vaccine development, production and timely availability.RESULTS: Four subsequential steps were uncovered from the literature and assessed as adequate for vaccine-related prevention strategies: (1) Clearly define the decision problem and the circumstances the vaccine needs to adapt to. Here, the nature of the intervention, e.g. production facilities, and what changes can occur to project demands should be considered; (2) Identify all forms of possible flexibility within the project design along the following RO characteristics: timing, dimension, innovation, and information. This involves options to postpone a decision, adjust project scale, implement a new technology into the project or conduct further research into better clinical evidence; (3) Analyse the determined ROs under different exogenous scenarios. If a RO is beneficial under all scenarios, there will be "no regret" to incorporate it; and (4) Finally, when quantifying an RO, this should be done indicatively given the parameter uncertainties and their probabilistic distributions.
CONCLUSIONS:
Systematically valuing the flexibility in infectious disease preparedness is key in informing project design, selection and funding decisions. Future research should aim for quantifying the RO value in the development of adaptive vaccine platforms and investments in production facilities.Conference/Value in Health Info
Value in Health, Volume 25, Issue 12S (December 2022)
Code
MSR141
Topic
Epidemiology & Public Health, Health Policy & Regulatory, Methodological & Statistical Research, Study Approaches
Topic Subcategory
Decision Modeling & Simulation, Public Health, Public Spending & National Health Expenditures
Disease
SDC: Infectious Disease (non-vaccine)