OBJECTIVES: Incidence and prevalence of HIV in Russia is highest among Central and Eastern European countries, and currently there are more than 1 million people living with HIV. HIV affects both social and economic development, which deteriorates human capital and slows economic growth. The aim of this study is to estimate social and economic burden of HIV in Russia.

METHODS: Social burden was defined as excess mortality and decrease in life expectancy at birth, fertility, natural population growth and population size, as well as years of life lost (YLL), quality adjusted years of life lost (QAYLL) and disability adjusted life years (DALY) lost These indicators were estimated for a hypothetical scenario of no HIV in Russia and then compared to their actual values in 2020 and national development goals for 2024 and 2030. Economic burden included medical costs of screening, diagnosis and treatment of HIV, including costs of antiretroviral therapy; direct non-medical costs of disability benefits, and indirect costs of GDP loss due to premature mortality and disability. All indicators were estimated for 2020 and no future costs were considered. Indirect costs were estimated using human capital theory.

RESULTS: In 2020 HIV accounted for 18.5 thousand excess deaths, lowered births by 5.1 thousand and life expectancy at birth by 0.26 years. By 2030 effective control of HIV could contribute around 4% of necessary life expectancy growth for achieving national development goal and 3% in terms of natural population growth. Economic burden of HIV was US$ 3,269.3 million, including US$ 2,486.8 million indirect economic costs. Direct medical costs were US$ 594.4 million that mainly attributed to state procurement of antiretroviral therapy (US$ 428.6 million). Direct non-medical costs were US$ 187.9 million.