Five-Year Clinical and Economic Impact of 20 Weight Loss in Adults With Obesity in Saudi Arabia: A Public Healthcare Perspective
Author(s)
Saleh A. Alqahtani, MD1, Hussain A. Al-Omar, PhD2, Yasser Albarkah, PhD3, Abdullah M. Alshahrani, MSc4, Ibtisam H. Alharbi, PhD5, Mohammed Alhartani, PhD5, Mahdy alanzi, PhD6, Mahmoud Eldin, PhD7, Volker Schnecke, PhD8.
1King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 2College of Pharmacy, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 3Ministry of Defense Health Services (MODHS), Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 4Armed Forces Hospital Southern Region, Khamis Mushait, Saudi Arabia, 5King Fahd Armed Forces Hospital, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, 6Prince Sultan Military Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 7Novo Nordisk, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 8Novo Nordisk A/S, Søborg, Denmark.
1King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 2College of Pharmacy, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 3Ministry of Defense Health Services (MODHS), Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 4Armed Forces Hospital Southern Region, Khamis Mushait, Saudi Arabia, 5King Fahd Armed Forces Hospital, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, 6Prince Sultan Military Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 7Novo Nordisk, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 8Novo Nordisk A/S, Søborg, Denmark.
OBJECTIVES: Obesity presents a substantial burden on Saudi Arabia’s healthcare system. While prior studies have assessed obesity burden, the impact of major weight reduction remains underexplored at the national level. This study evaluated the clinical and economic impact of achieving a 20% weight reduction among adults with obesity in Saudi Arabia.
METHODS: We used an adapted Value of Weight Loss model to simulate a 20% weight reduction over five years in a cohort of 100,000 Saudi adults (aged 20-69 years, BMI 30-50 kg/m², both genders). The model was calibrated using data from a systematic review to reflect obesity prevalence and major obesity-related complications (ORCs), such as type 2 diabetes (T2D), sleep apnea, hip/knee osteoarthritis, chronic kidney disease (CKD), asthma, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) including, hypertension, dyslipidemia, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, and unstable angina/myocardial infarction (MI). Cost inputs were derived using a micro-costing approach with data from public hospitals and validated through surveys of physicians and healthcare administrators. Outcomes included a reduction in the relative risk (RR) of ORCs, along with associated healthcare cost savings.
RESULTS: Projections suggested that a 20% weight reduction could significantly reduce the economic burden of ORCs in Saudi Arabia. Over five years, cumulative cost savings were estimated at 87 million USD. The largest savings were attributed to CVD (47M USD), followed by T2D (23.6M USD), sleep apnea (6.5M USD), hip/knee osteoarthritis (4.1M USD), CKD (3.3M USD), and asthma (1.9M USD). Clinical outcomes improved substantially. RR reductions included: hypertension 27.6%, dyslipidemia 19.7%, atrial fibrillation 10.1%, heart failure 6.6%, unstable angina/MI 0.8%, T2D 49.1%, sleep apnea 66.6%, osteoarthritis 24%, CKD 8.2%, and asthma 25.9%.
CONCLUSIONS: A 20% weight reduction in Saudi adults with obesity could significantly reduce ORC incidence and associated costs. These findings support integrating effective weight management strategies into national public health policy, aligning with Saudi Vision 2030.
METHODS: We used an adapted Value of Weight Loss model to simulate a 20% weight reduction over five years in a cohort of 100,000 Saudi adults (aged 20-69 years, BMI 30-50 kg/m², both genders). The model was calibrated using data from a systematic review to reflect obesity prevalence and major obesity-related complications (ORCs), such as type 2 diabetes (T2D), sleep apnea, hip/knee osteoarthritis, chronic kidney disease (CKD), asthma, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) including, hypertension, dyslipidemia, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, and unstable angina/myocardial infarction (MI). Cost inputs were derived using a micro-costing approach with data from public hospitals and validated through surveys of physicians and healthcare administrators. Outcomes included a reduction in the relative risk (RR) of ORCs, along with associated healthcare cost savings.
RESULTS: Projections suggested that a 20% weight reduction could significantly reduce the economic burden of ORCs in Saudi Arabia. Over five years, cumulative cost savings were estimated at 87 million USD. The largest savings were attributed to CVD (47M USD), followed by T2D (23.6M USD), sleep apnea (6.5M USD), hip/knee osteoarthritis (4.1M USD), CKD (3.3M USD), and asthma (1.9M USD). Clinical outcomes improved substantially. RR reductions included: hypertension 27.6%, dyslipidemia 19.7%, atrial fibrillation 10.1%, heart failure 6.6%, unstable angina/MI 0.8%, T2D 49.1%, sleep apnea 66.6%, osteoarthritis 24%, CKD 8.2%, and asthma 25.9%.
CONCLUSIONS: A 20% weight reduction in Saudi adults with obesity could significantly reduce ORC incidence and associated costs. These findings support integrating effective weight management strategies into national public health policy, aligning with Saudi Vision 2030.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2025-11, ISPOR Europe 2025, Glasgow, Scotland
Value in Health, Volume 28, Issue S2
Code
EE475
Topic
Economic Evaluation, Epidemiology & Public Health, Patient-Centered Research
Topic Subcategory
Cost/Cost of Illness/Resource Use Studies
Disease
Cardiovascular Disorders (including MI, Stroke, Circulatory), Diabetes/Endocrine/Metabolic Disorders (including obesity), Respiratory-Related Disorders (Allergy, Asthma, Smoking, Other Respiratory)