OBJECTIVES: The Federal project «Cancer Control» was launched in 2019. Its main objective is to reduce cancer mortality in Russia from 202.0 to 195.1 cases per 100 000 people by 2024. The aim of this work was to assess impact of using innovative antineoplastic drugs indicated for treatment of most common malignant neoplasms on cancer mortality in Russia.

METHODS: We considered durvalumab (lung cancer), osimertinib (lung cancer), enzalutamide (prostate cancer), olaparib (ovarian cancer), and nivolumab + ipilimumab (lung cancer and RCC). For each drug we estimated the number of patients, who can start treatment annually. Then we estimated the number of deaths that could be avoided in 2022 – 2024 due to the overall survival differences between new drugs compared to the standard of care. This amount was divided by the number of deaths that should be avoided to achieve goals of Federal project in 2022 – 2024 compared to 2021. Finally, we estimated the budget impact of using considered drugs and compared it to the budget of the Federal project.

RESULTS: Annually approx. 20 356 patients can start treatment with considered drugs: 2 391 with durvalumab, 2 334 with osimertinib, 2 410 with enzalutamide, 2 021 with olaparib and 11 200 with nivolumab + ipilimumab (8 000 with lung cancer and 3 200 with RCC). In 2022-2024 use of durvalumab could lead to reduction of cancer mortality by 779 deaths, osimertinib – by 723 deaths, enzalutamide – by 313 deaths, olaparib – by 679 deaths and nivolumab + ipilimumab (both indications) – by 4 124 deaths (totally 33% of reduction that should by achieved in 2022-2024 in order to meet Federal project goal). Costs of using considered drugs is 88% of Federal project budget on drug procurements.

CONCLUSIONS: Using of novel antineoplastic drugs leads to a quantifiable reduction in cancer mortality in Russia.