Exploratory Assessment of the Societal Impact of Changing Informal Care Hours in the Netherlands
Author(s)
Jos Luttjeboer, BSc, MSc1, Sophie Welk, BSc, MSc2, Simon Van der Pol, PharmD, PhD1, Cornelis Boersma, PhD2.
1Health-Ecore, Groningen, Netherlands, 2Health-Ecore, Zeist, Netherlands.
1Health-Ecore, Groningen, Netherlands, 2Health-Ecore, Zeist, Netherlands.
OBJECTIVES: This study explores the future societal impact of expected changes in the volume of informal care provision in the Netherlands. Given the demographic shift towards an aging population and shrinking workforce, we aimed to provide estimates for the societal costs associated with informal care, emphasizing both current and projected trends.
METHODS: We developed a microsimulation model to estimate the probability and extent of providing and receiving informal care, based on age, gender, and proximity to death. Societal costs of informal care were quantified using several valuation approaches: the opportunity cost of leisure time, national minimum wage, a proportion of the national average wage, and the replacement-cost method. Data on productivity losses and out-of-pocket expenses were drawn from a national cross-sectional survey. Productivity losses were calculated as reductions in paid work hours due to informal caregiving.
RESULTS: Our exploratory analysis found that total societal costs of informal care in 2025 are estimated to range between €25 and €35 billion, depending on the chosen valuation method. Due to an increasing demand for informal care, these costs are projected to rise to approximately €48-63 billion by 2050. By 2050, an estimated 250,000-300,000 individuals, predominantly women, will be out of the workforce to provide informal care, resulting in a reduction of 8-16 million work hours per year.
CONCLUSIONS: This exploratory study demonstrates that increases in informal care needs will have significant economic implications for Dutch society, both now and in the future. Investment in healthy aging may yield substantial societal benefit by reducing the burden on informal caregivers.
METHODS: We developed a microsimulation model to estimate the probability and extent of providing and receiving informal care, based on age, gender, and proximity to death. Societal costs of informal care were quantified using several valuation approaches: the opportunity cost of leisure time, national minimum wage, a proportion of the national average wage, and the replacement-cost method. Data on productivity losses and out-of-pocket expenses were drawn from a national cross-sectional survey. Productivity losses were calculated as reductions in paid work hours due to informal caregiving.
RESULTS: Our exploratory analysis found that total societal costs of informal care in 2025 are estimated to range between €25 and €35 billion, depending on the chosen valuation method. Due to an increasing demand for informal care, these costs are projected to rise to approximately €48-63 billion by 2050. By 2050, an estimated 250,000-300,000 individuals, predominantly women, will be out of the workforce to provide informal care, resulting in a reduction of 8-16 million work hours per year.
CONCLUSIONS: This exploratory study demonstrates that increases in informal care needs will have significant economic implications for Dutch society, both now and in the future. Investment in healthy aging may yield substantial societal benefit by reducing the burden on informal caregivers.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2025-11, ISPOR Europe 2025, Glasgow, Scotland
Value in Health, Volume 28, Issue S2
Code
EE455
Topic
Economic Evaluation, Health Policy & Regulatory, Methodological & Statistical Research
Topic Subcategory
Work & Home Productivity - Indirect Costs
Disease
No Additional Disease & Conditions/Specialized Treatment Areas