OBJECTIVES: The hypertension (HT) cohort was built from Thai real-world data to estimate the transition probabilities of HT complications. Improving understanding of the condition and its progression or transition to other conditions will assist appropriate, effective treatment strategies.

METHODS: Routine clinical practice data from Ramathibodi Hospital, Bangkok, Thailand between 2010 and 2020 was retrieved and built a cohort for newly diagnosed HT adults. The studied complications of interest included chronic kidney disease (CKD), myocardial infarction (MI), stroke and all-cause mortality. Ten-year transition probabilities for 12 transition pathways from complication-free HT to each complication state and transition from one state to another, were assessed as time to event by Kaplan-Meier estimates.

RESULTS: Of 155,886 newly diagnosed HT cases, CKD was the most observed complication at the incidence rate of 6.15/100 patients/year (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 6.08-6.22). HT subjects with CKD subjects had greater risk of developing MI and stroke than those without at 10-year transition probabilities (95% CI) of 24.81 (23.09, 26.63) and 7.71 (7.40, 8.02), respectively. MI has the highest 10-year probability of mortality at 15.52 (14.62, 16.88) compared to 8.77 (7.41, 10.36) for subjects with stroke, and 6.52 (5.47, 7.77) for those with CKD.

CONCLUSIONS: Forming a large real-world data cohort provided transition probabilities which will help identify associated prognosis and be able to apply further in an economic evaluation study.