OBJECTIVES: The metabo-reno-cardiovascular-disease-model (MRCDM) is a patient-level model with individuals with or without diabetes (type 1 or 2), obesity (defined by BMI), CVD or chronic kidney disease. It was developed to predict the risk of complications and mortality in these individuals. To predict the risk of cardiovascular (CVD) in type 1 diabetes (T1D) in Western countries the Swedish National Diabetes Registry (SweNDR), Scottish Registry Linkage (SRL), DCCT/EDIC and Pittsburgh equations were implemented. The aim of this abstract was to validate the prediction of CVD in individuals with type 1 diabetes using the first two equations.

METHODS: The model was populated with both Swedish and Scottish specific baseline characteristics. Starting age was 23 years and starting HbA1c was 8.0% for Sweden and 8.6% for Scotland. EDIC progression of risk factors was used. Country specific CVD equations and mortality approaches were employed. Predicted and observed cumulative incidences (CI) of CVD were compared. Time horizon was 50 years.

RESULTS: In the SweNDR study, observed CI of MI and stroke were 28% and 16%, respectively. MRCDM predictions with the SweNDR CVD equations show CI of MI and stroke of 29% and 16%, respectively. In the SRL study, observed CI of MI and stroke were 17% and 10%, respectively. MRCDM predictions show CI of MI and stroke of 18% and 10%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: With both the SweNDR and Scottish Registry equations, the MRCDM predictions are in line with the outcomes produced by each study, with a variation of 3-5%.