OBJECTIVES: Public health challenges are often conceived as complex systems issues, characterized by interdependencies and diverging stakeholder priorities. The impact of healthcare interventions on complex systems varies based on numerous factors and not considering these system dynamics will lead to incomplete assessments of the value of new health technologies.

METHODS: Taking a systems approach, we examine the value of seasonal influenza vaccinations in the UK by linking a dynamic disease transmission model with a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model representing the UK economy. CGE models reflect the full economic system including different domestic and international economic agents (e.g., households, firms, governments) with a detailed sectorial aggregation, including health and social care. The combined modelling approach between an epidemiological and economic model enables the assessment of clinical outcomes over time (e.g. number of infections, hospitalizations) and their economic and fiscal impacts (e.g. gross domestic product, government expenditures and tax income) over time. Analytically, different influenza vaccination scenarios are compared, varying by population groups (e.g., older adults, children).

RESULTS: Applying a CGE modelling approach can help to quantify a wider set of value drivers of healthcare innovations. First, the modelling approach considers the entire economy as an interconnected system, considering both direct and indirect effects of an innovation and looks beyond the immediate impacts on the healthcare sector to understand all impacts across other sectors. Second, it can be used to understand the fiscal impacts of healthcare innovations and can illuminate their distributional effects, identifying which groups are likely to benefit or lose within the economic system.

CONCLUSIONS: The use of CGE models in health economic evaluations and public health provides a holistic approach to understand and evaluate the complex fiscal and economic impacts of healthcare innovations. This systems approach is vital if we are to develop effective, sustainable, and equitable health interventions.