Updated Projections of HPV Vaccine Coverage Growth in Europe: Are Countries on Track to Meet WHO's 2030 Target?
Author(s)
Ilias Gountas, PhD1, Aimee Fox, PhD2, Ugne Sabale3.
1MSD Greece, Alimos, Greece, 2Adelphi Values PROVE, Bollington, United Kingdom, 3Merck Sharp & Dohme International Service B.V., Vilnius, Lithuania.
1MSD Greece, Alimos, Greece, 2Adelphi Values PROVE, Bollington, United Kingdom, 3Merck Sharp & Dohme International Service B.V., Vilnius, Lithuania.
OBJECTIVES: The World Health Organization (WHO) set 90% human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination coverage target among 15-year-old girls by 2030. A prior analysis using 2017-2022 WHO vaccine coverage rate (VCR) data indicated that most European countries were off-track. This study provides updated projections using 2023 WHO data, highlighting how recent trends affect the likelihood of meeting VCR goals for 15-year-old girls. This study aims to update projections of HPV VCR across Europe based on 2023 data, assess changes in national trajectories, and identify countries at risk of falling further behind the 2030 target.
METHODS: HPV VCR data from 2017-2023 were extracted for 20 European countries. A previously published modeling framework was used to estimate time required to reach 90% VCR target. For each country, several univariate regression models were fitted; the best-performing model was selected based on R² and visual fit. Countries with insufficient or missing data were excluded from analyses. Projections were made for the expected year each country would reach 90% HPV vaccine coverage.
RESULTS: Between 2022-2023, eight countries (Belgium, Cyprus, Denmark, France, Latvia, Norway, Iceland, Slovenia) demonstrated a median VCR increase of 3% (IQR: 4%). Nine countries (Bulgaria, Finland, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland) experienced a median decrease of 2.5% (IQR: 4%), while three (Czechia, Germany, Sweden) showed stagnation. Eight countries (Norway, Denmark, Portugal, Sweden, Iceland, Hungary, Spain, and Ireland) are currently projected to meet the 90% target before 2030. Switzerland, previously on track, is projected to meet the target in 2032. No country improved its projected timeline compared to previous analysis. Notably, Ireland (+5 years), Germany (+4), Hungary (+4), and Switzerland (+3) experienced the largest delays.
CONCLUSIONS: This analysis reveals a concerning deceleration progressing toward HPV vaccination goals across Europe. Even countries with improved coverage failed to accelerate as expected. These findings highlight the urgency for targeted policy action.
METHODS: HPV VCR data from 2017-2023 were extracted for 20 European countries. A previously published modeling framework was used to estimate time required to reach 90% VCR target. For each country, several univariate regression models were fitted; the best-performing model was selected based on R² and visual fit. Countries with insufficient or missing data were excluded from analyses. Projections were made for the expected year each country would reach 90% HPV vaccine coverage.
RESULTS: Between 2022-2023, eight countries (Belgium, Cyprus, Denmark, France, Latvia, Norway, Iceland, Slovenia) demonstrated a median VCR increase of 3% (IQR: 4%). Nine countries (Bulgaria, Finland, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland) experienced a median decrease of 2.5% (IQR: 4%), while three (Czechia, Germany, Sweden) showed stagnation. Eight countries (Norway, Denmark, Portugal, Sweden, Iceland, Hungary, Spain, and Ireland) are currently projected to meet the 90% target before 2030. Switzerland, previously on track, is projected to meet the target in 2032. No country improved its projected timeline compared to previous analysis. Notably, Ireland (+5 years), Germany (+4), Hungary (+4), and Switzerland (+3) experienced the largest delays.
CONCLUSIONS: This analysis reveals a concerning deceleration progressing toward HPV vaccination goals across Europe. Even countries with improved coverage failed to accelerate as expected. These findings highlight the urgency for targeted policy action.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2025-11, ISPOR Europe 2025, Glasgow, Scotland
Value in Health, Volume 28, Issue S2
Code
EPH274
Topic
Epidemiology & Public Health, Health Policy & Regulatory
Topic Subcategory
Public Health
Disease
Vaccines