Trends in Antiviral Drug Cost Proportion Under Different HBV Coverage Targets in China: A 2024-2050 Modeling Study
Author(s)
Yun Bao, MD1, Ying Chen, MD2, Lingli Zhang, PHD3, Bin Wu, PHD2.
1West China School of Pharmacy, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China, 2Shanghai Chest Hospital, Shanghai, China, 3West China Second University Hospital, Chengdu, China.
1West China School of Pharmacy, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China, 2Shanghai Chest Hospital, Shanghai, China, 3West China Second University Hospital, Chengdu, China.
OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the long-term trends in the proportion of antiviral drug costs within intervention and direct costs under different scenarios in which China achieves the WHO coverage targets for hepatitis B diagnosis and treatment by 2030, 2040, or 2050 from a health system perspective.
METHODS: A dynamic compartmental transmission model combined with a cascade care framework was used to simulate the disease burden and economic costs of hepatitis B in China from 1990 to 2050. Direct costs included both intervention costs and disease management costs. Intervention costs encompassed vaccines, diagnostics, and antiviral drugs. Disease management costs included expenses related to follow-up care, hospitalization, and HCC surveillance. The proportion of antiviral drug costs within total intervention costs and direct costs was analyzed for each coverage scenario over the period 2024-2050.
RESULTS: Under scenarios where WHO targets are achieved by 2030, 2040, and 2050, antiviral drug costs are projected to account for 55.65%, 48.50%, and 44.98% of intervention costs and 15.60%, 13.08%, and 11.00% of direct costs, respectively, during 2024-2050. In the 2030 scenario, the proportion of drug costs within intervention costs peaks at 60.45% in 2034 and then declines, whereas in the 2040 and 2050 scenarios, the proportion increases steadily over time.
CONCLUSIONS: Earlier achievement of HBV coverage targets results in a higher initial share of drug costs within interventions, followed by a declining trend, reflecting early intensive pharmaceutical investment and subsequent efficiency gains. In contrast, delayed coverage leads to a gradual increase in drug cost proportions.
METHODS: A dynamic compartmental transmission model combined with a cascade care framework was used to simulate the disease burden and economic costs of hepatitis B in China from 1990 to 2050. Direct costs included both intervention costs and disease management costs. Intervention costs encompassed vaccines, diagnostics, and antiviral drugs. Disease management costs included expenses related to follow-up care, hospitalization, and HCC surveillance. The proportion of antiviral drug costs within total intervention costs and direct costs was analyzed for each coverage scenario over the period 2024-2050.
RESULTS: Under scenarios where WHO targets are achieved by 2030, 2040, and 2050, antiviral drug costs are projected to account for 55.65%, 48.50%, and 44.98% of intervention costs and 15.60%, 13.08%, and 11.00% of direct costs, respectively, during 2024-2050. In the 2030 scenario, the proportion of drug costs within intervention costs peaks at 60.45% in 2034 and then declines, whereas in the 2040 and 2050 scenarios, the proportion increases steadily over time.
CONCLUSIONS: Earlier achievement of HBV coverage targets results in a higher initial share of drug costs within interventions, followed by a declining trend, reflecting early intensive pharmaceutical investment and subsequent efficiency gains. In contrast, delayed coverage leads to a gradual increase in drug cost proportions.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2025-11, ISPOR Europe 2025, Glasgow, Scotland
Value in Health, Volume 28, Issue S2
Code
EE739
Topic
Economic Evaluation
Topic Subcategory
Cost/Cost of Illness/Resource Use Studies
Disease
Gastrointestinal Disorders, Infectious Disease (non-vaccine)