Presentation (CTI)

OBJECTIVES: Increases in life expectancy and reductions in fertility rates mean that the global median age is the highest it’s ever been. This is most acute in high income countries, where health systems are already struggling to meet the demands of ageing populations, needing to satisfy greater care needs financed by a shrinking workforce. This study predicts the age-structure of the UK and estimates how population revenue and spending, and healthcare resource usage will change.
METHODS: We developed an age- and sex-stratified, dynamic population model of the UK using data from the Office for National Statistics. People entered the model through births and migration and left via mortality. Revenue and spending were determined using data from the Office for Budget Responsibility, and secondary care usage was predicted using data from the Secondary Usage Services dataset.
RESULTS: The UK population is predicted to increase from 69.3m in 2025 to 73.7m by 2060 with the average age increasing from 41.0 to 46.7 years. Over the same period, annual demand for inpatient bed days is predicted to increase by 44.4%, with a corresponding increase in health spending of £267.2bn to £328.8bn. Population-level net fiscal contribution is predicted to reduce significantly from -£7.0bn to -£54.9bn between 2025 and 2060, due to shifts in the ratio of economically active versus inactive individuals. This reduction is predicted to accelerate with time due to the cumulative effect of ageing and a reduction in new births.
CONCLUSIONS: The UK population has aged significantly, and its trajectory is predicted to continue. Our predictions indicate that the status quo is unsustainable and highlights a clear need for change to accommodate an ageing population.