The Five-Year Budget Impact of Introducing Semaglutide 2.4 mg for Obesity Management in Saudi Arabia: A Real-World Patient Flow and Complication-Driven Model
Author(s)
Mohamed Alzahrani, PhD1, Yasser Albarkah, PhD1, mohammed Suwairi, MSc2, Mohammed Alshraim, MSc2, LAILA ABU-ESBA, PharmD, MSc2, Laila Alanizy, PharmD3, Ibtisam Alharbi, PharmD, MSc4, Abdullah Alshahrani, PharmD, MSc5, Reem Alshammari, PharmD6, Nawaf Albali, MD7, Majd Alhamdan, PharmD8, ABUBKER OMAER, Pharm.D9.
1Ministry of Defense and Aviation, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 2Ministry of National Guard -Health Affairs, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 3King Fahad Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 4King Fahd Armed Hospital, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, 5Armed Forces Hospitals Southern Region, Khamis Mushait, Saudi Arabia, 6King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre , Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 7Council of Health Insurance, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 8HEPA Solutions, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 9Medical, The National Unified Procurement Company, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
1Ministry of Defense and Aviation, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 2Ministry of National Guard -Health Affairs, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 3King Fahad Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 4King Fahd Armed Hospital, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, 5Armed Forces Hospitals Southern Region, Khamis Mushait, Saudi Arabia, 6King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre , Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 7Council of Health Insurance, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 8HEPA Solutions, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 9Medical, The National Unified Procurement Company, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
OBJECTIVES:
Obesity imposes a rising clinical and economic burden in Saudi Arabia, contributing to type 2 diabetes, dyslipidaemia, and cardiovascular disease. The objective of this study is to evaluate the financial impact of introducing Semaglutide 2.4 over 5 years’ time horizon from a public payer perspective by incorporating real-world treatment pathways, comorbidity burden, and complication-specific cost offsets using a localized real-world flow model.
METHODS:
A prevalence-based budget impact model stratified the adult population (BMI ≥27 kg/m²) into engagement steps including diagnosis, follow-up, and treatment discussions. Market mix inputs were derived from local pricing data, and obesity-related complication costs were drawn from national datasets. The model compared a baseline (without Semaglutide 2.4) with a scenario introducing Semaglutide 2.4 mg in eligible populations. Costs were assessed for therapeutic management, surgical intervention, and obesity-related complications. Sensitivity analysis was applied to assess cardiovascular outcomes.
RESULTS:
Between 2025 and 2029, introducing Semaglutide 2.4 mg into the existing mix of anti-obesity medications in Saudi Arabia is projected to reduce total healthcare spending by approximately 11% over 5 years. Although the medication itself has a higher acquisition cost, it provides substantial economic value by lowering the costs associated with obesity-related complications. Notably, surgical costs decreased annually, and the biggest economic benefit came from improved cardiovascular outcomes, due to better clinical results and slower disease progression. Even though only about 2.4% of eligible adults currently reach the stage of discussing anti-obesity medications with their physicians. The real-world use of Semaglutide 2.4 mg shows promising budget impact—where its higher costs are partly offset by reductions in long-term obesity-related healthcare expenses.
CONCLUSIONS:
Incorporating Semaglutide 2.4 mg into Saudi Arabia’s obesity care pathway yields clinically meaningful outcomes with favourable budget implications. Targeted adoption in eligible patients may support value-based decision-making and long-term sustainability of obesity-related healthcare budgets.
Obesity imposes a rising clinical and economic burden in Saudi Arabia, contributing to type 2 diabetes, dyslipidaemia, and cardiovascular disease. The objective of this study is to evaluate the financial impact of introducing Semaglutide 2.4 over 5 years’ time horizon from a public payer perspective by incorporating real-world treatment pathways, comorbidity burden, and complication-specific cost offsets using a localized real-world flow model.
METHODS:
A prevalence-based budget impact model stratified the adult population (BMI ≥27 kg/m²) into engagement steps including diagnosis, follow-up, and treatment discussions. Market mix inputs were derived from local pricing data, and obesity-related complication costs were drawn from national datasets. The model compared a baseline (without Semaglutide 2.4) with a scenario introducing Semaglutide 2.4 mg in eligible populations. Costs were assessed for therapeutic management, surgical intervention, and obesity-related complications. Sensitivity analysis was applied to assess cardiovascular outcomes.
RESULTS:
Between 2025 and 2029, introducing Semaglutide 2.4 mg into the existing mix of anti-obesity medications in Saudi Arabia is projected to reduce total healthcare spending by approximately 11% over 5 years. Although the medication itself has a higher acquisition cost, it provides substantial economic value by lowering the costs associated with obesity-related complications. Notably, surgical costs decreased annually, and the biggest economic benefit came from improved cardiovascular outcomes, due to better clinical results and slower disease progression. Even though only about 2.4% of eligible adults currently reach the stage of discussing anti-obesity medications with their physicians. The real-world use of Semaglutide 2.4 mg shows promising budget impact—where its higher costs are partly offset by reductions in long-term obesity-related healthcare expenses.
CONCLUSIONS:
Incorporating Semaglutide 2.4 mg into Saudi Arabia’s obesity care pathway yields clinically meaningful outcomes with favourable budget implications. Targeted adoption in eligible patients may support value-based decision-making and long-term sustainability of obesity-related healthcare budgets.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2025-11, ISPOR Europe 2025, Glasgow, Scotland
Value in Health, Volume 28, Issue S2
Code
EE708
Topic
Economic Evaluation, Health Technology Assessment, Real World Data & Information Systems
Topic Subcategory
Budget Impact Analysis, Value of Information
Disease
Diabetes/Endocrine/Metabolic Disorders (including obesity), No Additional Disease & Conditions/Specialized Treatment Areas