The Enduring Economic Burden of COVID-19 and the Value of Vaccination Strategies in High-Income Countries
Author(s)
Hania El Banhawi, MSc1, Sian Hodgson, BSc, MSc2, Lotte Steuten, MSc, PhD2.
1Economist, OHE, London, United Kingdom, 2Office of Health Economics, London, United Kingdom.
1Economist, OHE, London, United Kingdom, 2Office of Health Economics, London, United Kingdom.
OBJECTIVES: This study estimates the ongoing economic burden of COVID-19 in a post-pandemic setting and assesses the potential economic benefits of vaccination strategies. Specifically, it quantifies the economic impact on healthcare systems and national economies and explores potential gains of extending vaccination programme recommendations beyond vulnerable populations.
METHODS: A cost-of-illness analysis was conducted for four high-income countries; Australia, Japan, the Netherlands, and the UK. The analysis used disease models containing 2023/2024 data and estimates economic losses associated with morbidity (due to acute infection and long COVID) and mortality. It quantifies healthcare resource use to calculate direct medical costs, and patient and caregiver productivity losses to calculate indirect costs. Three vaccination scenarios were compared to no vaccination: vaccination of older adults and high-risk groups and extended vaccination to the general populations aged 50+ and 18+.
RESULTS: Without vaccination, the economic burden of COVID-19 averages 0.53% (0.26%-0.97%) of GDP, with national economies bearing a larger share of the burden than healthcare systems. Working age populations (18-64 years) account for over 82% (82%-93%) of the national economy burden across countries. Long COVID accounts for up to 45% (18%-45%) of costs to the national economy. Vaccination programmes for older adults and high-risk groups are estimated on average to reduce healthcare costs by 23% (13%-31%) and 8% of costs to the national economy (4%-12%). Expanding vaccination eligibility to the general population aged 50 and over averts on average 13% (5%-25%) of costs to the national economy. Expanding to the general population aged 18 and over averts on average 27% (9%-60%) of costs to the national economy.
CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 continues to cause substantial economic losses beyond the healthcare system. While current vaccination recommendations importantly reduce healthcare costs, they leave national economies vulnerable. Expanding annual vaccination to include more working-age adults could mitigate pressures on healthcare systems and national economies.
METHODS: A cost-of-illness analysis was conducted for four high-income countries; Australia, Japan, the Netherlands, and the UK. The analysis used disease models containing 2023/2024 data and estimates economic losses associated with morbidity (due to acute infection and long COVID) and mortality. It quantifies healthcare resource use to calculate direct medical costs, and patient and caregiver productivity losses to calculate indirect costs. Three vaccination scenarios were compared to no vaccination: vaccination of older adults and high-risk groups and extended vaccination to the general populations aged 50+ and 18+.
RESULTS: Without vaccination, the economic burden of COVID-19 averages 0.53% (0.26%-0.97%) of GDP, with national economies bearing a larger share of the burden than healthcare systems. Working age populations (18-64 years) account for over 82% (82%-93%) of the national economy burden across countries. Long COVID accounts for up to 45% (18%-45%) of costs to the national economy. Vaccination programmes for older adults and high-risk groups are estimated on average to reduce healthcare costs by 23% (13%-31%) and 8% of costs to the national economy (4%-12%). Expanding vaccination eligibility to the general population aged 50 and over averts on average 13% (5%-25%) of costs to the national economy. Expanding to the general population aged 18 and over averts on average 27% (9%-60%) of costs to the national economy.
CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 continues to cause substantial economic losses beyond the healthcare system. While current vaccination recommendations importantly reduce healthcare costs, they leave national economies vulnerable. Expanding annual vaccination to include more working-age adults could mitigate pressures on healthcare systems and national economies.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2025-11, ISPOR Europe 2025, Glasgow, Scotland
Value in Health, Volume 28, Issue S2
Code
HPR199
Topic
Economic Evaluation, Health Policy & Regulatory
Disease
Vaccines