Quantifying the Fiscal Benefits of Obesity Prevalence Reduction in China: A Public Economic Perspective
Author(s)
Ruxu Jia, MSc1, Haiwei Zhao, MSc2, Sara Larsen, PhD3, Jian Wang, PhD1.
1Dong Fureng Institute of Economic and Social Development, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China, 2Novo Nordisk (China) Pharmaceuticals Co., Ltd, Beijing, China, 3Novo Nordisk A/S, Copenhagen, Denmark.
1Dong Fureng Institute of Economic and Social Development, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China, 2Novo Nordisk (China) Pharmaceuticals Co., Ltd, Beijing, China, 3Novo Nordisk A/S, Copenhagen, Denmark.
OBJECTIVES: The rising obesity prevalence is imposing an increasingly financial burden on the Chinese healthcare system. Therefore, this study estimated the fiscal consequences of lowering the obesity prevalence rate taking a Chinese government perspective to provide evidence for decision-making.
METHODS: This study adapted an age-specific prevalence model built in Microsoft Excel®, previously validated and applied in two studies from Canada and Japan. The model encompassed four key dimensions, including tax revenue, disability pension, retirement payments, and healthcare costs attributable to obesity. Two cohorts were established under the scenarios of current obesity prevalence status and prevalence reduction assumption. Fiscal impacts were analyzed by comparing the difference on four dimensions between two cohorts. A targeted literature review was conducted to identify the model inputs, primarily from secondary data in publications and yearbooks. Costs were adjusted to 2024 level by CPI. One-way sensitivity analysis was conducted to verify result robustness.
RESULTS: The total estimated fiscal burden of obesity in China was ¥608.17 billion (0.482% of GDP) in 2024. A 1% absolute reduction in obesity prevalence was projected to generate ¥37.08 billion of net fiscal revenue for the government. This figure included revenue gain of ¥20.87 billion and ¥4.078 billion from direct and indirect tax, cost saving of ¥6.15 billion and ¥6.71 billion on disability pensions and healthcare costs, and ¥0.37 billion increase in retirement payments. This would reduce the net fiscal burden per taxpayer by approximately ¥571.81. One-way sensitivity analysis showed the results were most sen sitive to the odds ratio for labor force participation (obese/non-obese).
CONCLUSIONS: Obesity not only imposes a substantial burden on the healthcare system but also exacerbated the fiscal pressure on the government and taxpayers. Reducing the obesity prevalence by just 1% is expected to yield positive fiscal benefits for the government. Obesity prevention and intervention efforts should be adequately explored in China.
METHODS: This study adapted an age-specific prevalence model built in Microsoft Excel®, previously validated and applied in two studies from Canada and Japan. The model encompassed four key dimensions, including tax revenue, disability pension, retirement payments, and healthcare costs attributable to obesity. Two cohorts were established under the scenarios of current obesity prevalence status and prevalence reduction assumption. Fiscal impacts were analyzed by comparing the difference on four dimensions between two cohorts. A targeted literature review was conducted to identify the model inputs, primarily from secondary data in publications and yearbooks. Costs were adjusted to 2024 level by CPI. One-way sensitivity analysis was conducted to verify result robustness.
RESULTS: The total estimated fiscal burden of obesity in China was ¥608.17 billion (0.482% of GDP) in 2024. A 1% absolute reduction in obesity prevalence was projected to generate ¥37.08 billion of net fiscal revenue for the government. This figure included revenue gain of ¥20.87 billion and ¥4.078 billion from direct and indirect tax, cost saving of ¥6.15 billion and ¥6.71 billion on disability pensions and healthcare costs, and ¥0.37 billion increase in retirement payments. This would reduce the net fiscal burden per taxpayer by approximately ¥571.81. One-way sensitivity analysis showed the results were most sen sitive to the odds ratio for labor force participation (obese/non-obese).
CONCLUSIONS: Obesity not only imposes a substantial burden on the healthcare system but also exacerbated the fiscal pressure on the government and taxpayers. Reducing the obesity prevalence by just 1% is expected to yield positive fiscal benefits for the government. Obesity prevention and intervention efforts should be adequately explored in China.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2025-11, ISPOR Europe 2025, Glasgow, Scotland
Value in Health, Volume 28, Issue S2
Code
EE627
Topic
Economic Evaluation, Health Policy & Regulatory
Topic Subcategory
Cost/Cost of Illness/Resource Use Studies
Disease
Diabetes/Endocrine/Metabolic Disorders (including obesity), No Additional Disease & Conditions/Specialized Treatment Areas