Survival Trends in Multiple Myeloma by Treatment Era in the United States
Author(s)
Alison Isherwood, PhD1, Fiachra Bolger, PhD1, Julia Morris, PhD1, Danielle Rollmann, MPA2, Adrian Griffin, MSc.3, Mike Spencer, MSc.2, Stacey Hickson, PhD2.
1Clarivate, London, United Kingdom, 2Janssen Inc., Raritan, NJ, USA, 3Johnson & Johnson, Buckinghamshire, United Kingdom.
1Clarivate, London, United Kingdom, 2Janssen Inc., Raritan, NJ, USA, 3Johnson & Johnson, Buckinghamshire, United Kingdom.
OBJECTIVES: Investigate the impact of treatment eras on survival in multiple myeloma (MM) in the US.
METHODS: Observed survival (OS) for 1-year through 10-year (2000 to 2021) and median OS (mOS) (1975-2016, median not reached past 2016) from the US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program (8-17 Registries, 1975-2021) for MM were analysed. The change in OS and mOS was calculated for therapy eras (1975-1991, 1992-1999, 2000-2021). mOS was imputed for 2017-2025 by fitting curves to the OS data (1- through 10-year) and then for each diagnosis year.
RESULTS: mOS increased ~3-fold from 1975 to 2016. The greatest increase (124%, 29.3 to 65.8months) was seen from 2000 onwards. Forecasted mOS in 2025 was 78.0-94.7months. Improvements in OS were greatest for 7-year to 10-year data post-diagnosis, increasing more than 2-fold from 2000 (Table 1).
Table 1. 1-, 3-, 5-, 7-, 10-year OS increase, % (range)/ mOS increase, % (months): 1975-1991 Chemotherapy era 10.5(65.9%-72.8%), 17.1(36.9%-43.2%), 21.1(21.3%-25.8%), 37.2(11.3%-15.5%), 45.9(6.1%-8.9%)/ 23.4 (23.3-28.8); 1992-1999 Stem cell transplant era 5.5(67.5%-71.2%), 9.2(40.4%-44.1%), 15.3(23.6%-27.2%), 28.9(15.2%-19.6%), 43.3(9.0%-12.9%)/ 25.4 (24.6-30.8); 2000-2021 Targeted Medicines era 17.2(69.9%-81.9%), 48.3(44.5%-66.0%), 85.2(29.0%-53.7%), 85.2(29.0%-53.7%), 103.3(21.1%-42.9%), 117.4(13.8%-30%)/ 124.1(29.3-65.8).
CONCLUSIONS: Survival for patients with MM has progressively increased over the last decades as new and better treatments become available. Forecasted mOS is likely to be a conservative estimate since new medicines are typically first available in later-lines of treatment in the latter stages of disease and then shift to earlier lines where the beneficial impact will be greater. Additionally, clinical trials beyond the period of study have shown even greater survival benefits1,2, progressing hope towards a cure. However, success in extending patient survival brings challenges to measuring mOS in a clinical trial timeframe and underscores the need for alternative endpoints and median OS follow-up of more than 5 years.1Falcon, et al. ASCO 2025; 2Moreau, et al. ASCO, 2025
METHODS: Observed survival (OS) for 1-year through 10-year (2000 to 2021) and median OS (mOS) (1975-2016, median not reached past 2016) from the US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program (8-17 Registries, 1975-2021) for MM were analysed. The change in OS and mOS was calculated for therapy eras (1975-1991, 1992-1999, 2000-2021). mOS was imputed for 2017-2025 by fitting curves to the OS data (1- through 10-year) and then for each diagnosis year.
RESULTS: mOS increased ~3-fold from 1975 to 2016. The greatest increase (124%, 29.3 to 65.8months) was seen from 2000 onwards. Forecasted mOS in 2025 was 78.0-94.7months. Improvements in OS were greatest for 7-year to 10-year data post-diagnosis, increasing more than 2-fold from 2000 (Table 1).
Table 1. 1-, 3-, 5-, 7-, 10-year OS increase, % (range)/ mOS increase, % (months): 1975-1991 Chemotherapy era 10.5(65.9%-72.8%), 17.1(36.9%-43.2%), 21.1(21.3%-25.8%), 37.2(11.3%-15.5%), 45.9(6.1%-8.9%)/ 23.4 (23.3-28.8); 1992-1999 Stem cell transplant era 5.5(67.5%-71.2%), 9.2(40.4%-44.1%), 15.3(23.6%-27.2%), 28.9(15.2%-19.6%), 43.3(9.0%-12.9%)/ 25.4 (24.6-30.8); 2000-2021 Targeted Medicines era 17.2(69.9%-81.9%), 48.3(44.5%-66.0%), 85.2(29.0%-53.7%), 85.2(29.0%-53.7%), 103.3(21.1%-42.9%), 117.4(13.8%-30%)/ 124.1(29.3-65.8).
CONCLUSIONS: Survival for patients with MM has progressively increased over the last decades as new and better treatments become available. Forecasted mOS is likely to be a conservative estimate since new medicines are typically first available in later-lines of treatment in the latter stages of disease and then shift to earlier lines where the beneficial impact will be greater. Additionally, clinical trials beyond the period of study have shown even greater survival benefits1,2, progressing hope towards a cure. However, success in extending patient survival brings challenges to measuring mOS in a clinical trial timeframe and underscores the need for alternative endpoints and median OS follow-up of more than 5 years.1Falcon, et al. ASCO 2025; 2Moreau, et al. ASCO, 2025
Conference/Value in Health Info
2025-11, ISPOR Europe 2025, Glasgow, Scotland
Value in Health, Volume 28, Issue S2
Code
EPH224
Topic
Clinical Outcomes, Epidemiology & Public Health, Real World Data & Information Systems
Topic Subcategory
Public Health
Disease
Oncology