Presentation (CTI)

OBJECTIVES: In support of developing the NHS 10-year plan, the Secretary of State for Health asked Lord Ara Darzi to launch the “Future State Programme” to explore what the global future of healthcare could look like. One of the four themes of the programme is “Innovation in healthcare delivery”. This piece of work focused on this theme and set out the vision for how data digital and AI could transform healthcare delivery in the NHS over the next 10 years.
METHODS: Publicly available data for healthcare spend, GDP and population was used to understand the potential of AI and predictive algorithms to lead targeted interventions. We also engaged with a panel of clinicians to understand the potential of addressing the resolving healthcare demand through AI and digital interactions.
RESULTS: Healthcare cost per capita growth has been outstripping GDP by 1.5% therefore addressing this is required to accelerate productivity growth. There is the opportunity for 20-40% lower cost and better outcomes due to ability to identify earlier, close care gaps and the lower cost of earlier intervention with a possibility to reduce 20-70% of demand by resolving encounters digitally. This would translate to 20-40% productivity gain in clinical and nonclinical. However, only 20% of patient and between 4-27% of clinicians adopt new technologies. This will be the rate limiting step to achieving impact
CONCLUSIONS: Overall key opportunities exist to intervene earlier and reduce costs, resolve demand digitally and eliminate need for current activity and increase labour productivity through use of ambient NLP and gen AI, and optimise core operations. This will require embracing technology investment and change management to enable the NHS to deliver the significant gains that are now materialising around the world.