Quantifying the Economic Burden of Undiagnosed Sleep Apnea in India’s Productive Population: A Health Economic Modeling Approach
Author(s)
Ankit Ghildiyal, M.Pharm, MSc1, Upasana Kharb, MBA2, Sibasish Dey, MD2.
1ResMed, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom, 2ResMed, Delhi, India.
1ResMed, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom, 2ResMed, Delhi, India.
OBJECTIVES: Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA) is a prevalent but underdiagnosed condition impacting workforce productivity, healthcare use, and economic output. In India, where over 85% of working-age adults with OSA remain undiagnosed, it contributes to avoidable costs from absenteeism, early retirement, hospitalizations, and accidents. This study quantified the macroeconomic burden of undiagnosed OSA and evaluated the return on investment (ROI) of early diagnosis across coverage and risk scenarios to inform cost-effective policy.
METHODS: A health economic model used demographic, epidemiologic, and economic data, incorporating age-specific OSA prevalence, workforce participation, and GDP contribution. Outcomes included system-level savings, per capita net benefits, accident-related cost reductions, and GDP gains. Break-even analysis assessed time to net-positive returns.
RESULTS: Among India’s 296 million working adults (ages 30-60), 11% (~33 million) are estimated to have OSA, yet over 85% remain undiagnosed. Of 7 million high-risk individuals, only 15% are diagnosed, leaving 6 million untreated, causing a 0.07-0.12% annual GDP loss. The total economic burden of undiagnosed OSA is approximately ₹19,500 Cr ($2.3 B USD) per year. Closing this gap yields ₹15,218 Cr ($1.8 B USD) in savings with a ~1000% ROI (₹10 per ₹1). As risk increases, inaction costs grow sharply while diagnosis cost stays flat (₹15,000 / $180), pushing per-person net benefit from ₹4.52 lakh to ₹6 lakh ($5.4k-$7.1k). The program achieves profitability from Year 1 (₹106 Cr or $13 M USD gain), growing to ₹525 Cr ($62 M USD) net by Year 5. Diagnosis cuts productivity loss, hospitalization, and early retirement by 86%, prevents 7,000+ accidents (₹280 Cr or $33 M USD saved)
CONCLUSIONS: Undiagnosed OSA poses a substantial yet preventable economic burden on India’s productive population. Targeted diagnosis of high-risk individuals can yield strong economic returns and reduce GDP losses. Policymakers should integrate OSA screening into national and employer health strategies to optimize productivity, safety, and fiscal outcomes
METHODS: A health economic model used demographic, epidemiologic, and economic data, incorporating age-specific OSA prevalence, workforce participation, and GDP contribution. Outcomes included system-level savings, per capita net benefits, accident-related cost reductions, and GDP gains. Break-even analysis assessed time to net-positive returns.
RESULTS: Among India’s 296 million working adults (ages 30-60), 11% (~33 million) are estimated to have OSA, yet over 85% remain undiagnosed. Of 7 million high-risk individuals, only 15% are diagnosed, leaving 6 million untreated, causing a 0.07-0.12% annual GDP loss. The total economic burden of undiagnosed OSA is approximately ₹19,500 Cr ($2.3 B USD) per year. Closing this gap yields ₹15,218 Cr ($1.8 B USD) in savings with a ~1000% ROI (₹10 per ₹1). As risk increases, inaction costs grow sharply while diagnosis cost stays flat (₹15,000 / $180), pushing per-person net benefit from ₹4.52 lakh to ₹6 lakh ($5.4k-$7.1k). The program achieves profitability from Year 1 (₹106 Cr or $13 M USD gain), growing to ₹525 Cr ($62 M USD) net by Year 5. Diagnosis cuts productivity loss, hospitalization, and early retirement by 86%, prevents 7,000+ accidents (₹280 Cr or $33 M USD saved)
CONCLUSIONS: Undiagnosed OSA poses a substantial yet preventable economic burden on India’s productive population. Targeted diagnosis of high-risk individuals can yield strong economic returns and reduce GDP losses. Policymakers should integrate OSA screening into national and employer health strategies to optimize productivity, safety, and fiscal outcomes
Conference/Value in Health Info
2025-11, ISPOR Europe 2025, Glasgow, Scotland
Value in Health, Volume 28, Issue S2
Code
EPH202
Topic
Economic Evaluation, Epidemiology & Public Health, Health Policy & Regulatory
Topic Subcategory
Public Health
Disease
Respiratory-Related Disorders (Allergy, Asthma, Smoking, Other Respiratory)