Public Health Impact of Bivalent Respiratory Syncytial Virus Prefusion F Vaccine for Prevention of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Illness Among High-Risk Adults Aged 18-59 Years in Germany
Author(s)
Erin Quinn, BS1, Mary MacKinnon, BS1, Severin Freisberg, MD2, Caroline Lade, PhD2, Josephine Friedrich, MS2, Florian Reis, MD2, Lea Johanna Bayer, PhD2, Christof von Eiff, MD2, Julia Schiffner-Rohe, MSc2, Reiko Sato, PhD3, Ahuva Averin, MPP1.
1Avalere Health, Washington, DC, USA, 2Pfizer Pharma GmbH, Berlin, Germany, 3Pfizer Inc., Collegeville, PA, USA.
1Avalere Health, Washington, DC, USA, 2Pfizer Pharma GmbH, Berlin, Germany, 3Pfizer Inc., Collegeville, PA, USA.
OBJECTIVES: Adults with chronic or immunocompromising medical conditions (“CMC+/IC”) are particularly susceptible to significant RSV-related morbidity and mortality. In March 2025, European Medicines Agency (EMA) authorization of RSVpreF for prevention of RSV-LRTI was extended to include adults aged ≥18 years. We evaluated the potential public health impact of vaccination with RSVpreF among CMC+/IC adults aged 18-59 years in Germany.
METHODS: A cohort model was employed to depict public health outcomes of RSV-LRTI over five years with use of RSVpreF versus no intervention among CMC+/IC adults aged 18-59 years in Germany (N=14.7 million). Outcomes were projected (monthly) based on age, RSV-LRTI rates (hospitalized vs. ambulatory), calendar month, case fatality rates (RSV-hospital only), and vaccine uptake in model year 1 (18-49y: 9.9%; 50-59y: 18.8%). Vaccine effectiveness (VE) and waning were derived from Phase III clinical trial data and extrapolation. Other model inputs were based on German data. Scenario analyses included: #1) 75% uptake based on the World Health Organization influenza vaccination target for persons at high-risk for influenza and #2) optimistic VE (linear waning to 0 at 70 month).
RESULTS: With no intervention, 78,370 hospitalizations, 578,305 ambulatory encounters, and 3,383 deaths due to RSV-LRTI are projected over five years. Use of RSVpreF would prevent 5,361 hospitalizations (7% reduction), 21,651 ambulatory encounters (4% reduction), and 243 deaths due to RSV-LRTI (7% reduction) over the 5-year horizon. Compared to base case, scenario #1 would avert an additional 120,497 cases (hospitalized: 22,534; ambulatory: 97,963) and 936 RSV-attributable deaths; scenario #2 would avert an additional 772 hospitalizations and 37 deaths.
CONCLUSIONS: RSVpreF uptake comparable to current influenza vaccine uptake would reduce the public health burden of RSV-LRTI in CMC+/IC adults aged 18-59 years in Germany. A public health campaign aimed at increasing RSVpreF uptake to levels closer to 75% would further reduce disease.
METHODS: A cohort model was employed to depict public health outcomes of RSV-LRTI over five years with use of RSVpreF versus no intervention among CMC+/IC adults aged 18-59 years in Germany (N=14.7 million). Outcomes were projected (monthly) based on age, RSV-LRTI rates (hospitalized vs. ambulatory), calendar month, case fatality rates (RSV-hospital only), and vaccine uptake in model year 1 (18-49y: 9.9%; 50-59y: 18.8%). Vaccine effectiveness (VE) and waning were derived from Phase III clinical trial data and extrapolation. Other model inputs were based on German data. Scenario analyses included: #1) 75% uptake based on the World Health Organization influenza vaccination target for persons at high-risk for influenza and #2) optimistic VE (linear waning to 0 at 70 month).
RESULTS: With no intervention, 78,370 hospitalizations, 578,305 ambulatory encounters, and 3,383 deaths due to RSV-LRTI are projected over five years. Use of RSVpreF would prevent 5,361 hospitalizations (7% reduction), 21,651 ambulatory encounters (4% reduction), and 243 deaths due to RSV-LRTI (7% reduction) over the 5-year horizon. Compared to base case, scenario #1 would avert an additional 120,497 cases (hospitalized: 22,534; ambulatory: 97,963) and 936 RSV-attributable deaths; scenario #2 would avert an additional 772 hospitalizations and 37 deaths.
CONCLUSIONS: RSVpreF uptake comparable to current influenza vaccine uptake would reduce the public health burden of RSV-LRTI in CMC+/IC adults aged 18-59 years in Germany. A public health campaign aimed at increasing RSVpreF uptake to levels closer to 75% would further reduce disease.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2025-11, ISPOR Europe 2025, Glasgow, Scotland
Value in Health, Volume 28, Issue S2
Code
CO194
Topic
Clinical Outcomes
Disease
No Additional Disease & Conditions/Specialized Treatment Areas, Vaccines