Public Health Impact of 25 Years of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccination in Children 5 Years Old: A Modeling Analysis
Author(s)
Sophie Warren, MSc1, Mark Rozenbaum, MBA, PhD2, Des Dillon-Murphy, PhD3, Deepak Alexander, MSc3, Mina Moawad, MSc3, Ruth Chapman, BA, MSc, PhD3.
1Pfizer, North Reading, MA, USA, 2Pfizer, Capelle aan den IJssel, Netherlands, 3PPD Evidera Health Economics & Market Access/Thermo Fisher Scientific, London, United Kingdom.
1Pfizer, North Reading, MA, USA, 2Pfizer, Capelle aan den IJssel, Netherlands, 3PPD Evidera Health Economics & Market Access/Thermo Fisher Scientific, London, United Kingdom.
OBJECTIVES: 25 years ago, the first routine, pediatric immunization programme against pneumococcal disease was implemented in the United States to combat the high burden of pneumococcal disease in children. PCV7 introduction resulted in substantial reductions in pneumococcal disease incidence in the US, resulting in its adoption in other countries. From 2010, higher-valent vaccines such as PCV13 replaced PCV7 and were implemented in national immunization programs globally, resulting in population-level reductions in pneumococcal disease due to direct and indirect effects. Next-generation vaccines such as PCV20 are now available and are expected to build on the impact of PCV7 and PCV13. This work builds on a previous estimation of the 10-year impact of PCV13 and estimates the 25-year impact of PCV7, PCV13, and PCV20 on disease cases and deaths in children <5.
METHODS: We updated the 10-year model to estimate the number of infants vaccinated with PCV7, PCV13, and PCV20 as well as the consequent number of averted disease cases and deaths from 2000 to 2025. Cases averted were calculated from either pre- and post-vaccine incidence difference or vaccine effectiveness. Age- and country-specific incidence rates were obtained from a published global analysis. Population sizes, birth rates, and coverage estimates were derived from WHO, UN and UNICEF data.
RESULTS: Preliminary results estimate that over 500 million infants have been vaccinated with PCV7, PCV13, and PCV20, preventing over 250 million cases of pneumococcal disease and over 1 million deaths globally between 2000 and 2025.
CONCLUSIONS: The vaccination of over 500 million infants with PCV7, PCV13, and PCV20 has substantially reduced the global burden of pneumococcal disease, preventing over 250 million cases and more than 1 million deaths over 25 years. Despite these achievements, pneumococcal disease remains a concern. Expanding PCV programs worldwide and implementing higher-valent PCVs in pediatric immunization programs could lead to greater reductions in disease burden.
METHODS: We updated the 10-year model to estimate the number of infants vaccinated with PCV7, PCV13, and PCV20 as well as the consequent number of averted disease cases and deaths from 2000 to 2025. Cases averted were calculated from either pre- and post-vaccine incidence difference or vaccine effectiveness. Age- and country-specific incidence rates were obtained from a published global analysis. Population sizes, birth rates, and coverage estimates were derived from WHO, UN and UNICEF data.
RESULTS: Preliminary results estimate that over 500 million infants have been vaccinated with PCV7, PCV13, and PCV20, preventing over 250 million cases of pneumococcal disease and over 1 million deaths globally between 2000 and 2025.
CONCLUSIONS: The vaccination of over 500 million infants with PCV7, PCV13, and PCV20 has substantially reduced the global burden of pneumococcal disease, preventing over 250 million cases and more than 1 million deaths over 25 years. Despite these achievements, pneumococcal disease remains a concern. Expanding PCV programs worldwide and implementing higher-valent PCVs in pediatric immunization programs could lead to greater reductions in disease burden.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2025-11, ISPOR Europe 2025, Glasgow, Scotland
Value in Health, Volume 28, Issue S2
Code
EPH198
Topic
Epidemiology & Public Health
Topic Subcategory
Public Health
Disease
Vaccines