Premium Relief Through Prevention: Actuarial Valuation of Herpes Zoster Vaccination
Author(s)
Lefteris Zarkadoulas, FHAS CERA MBA1, Aikaterini Molla, FHAS MSc2, Alen Marijam, MSc, PharmD1, Nikos Kotsopoulos, MSc, PhD3, Mark Connolly, BA, MSc, PhD1, Maarten Jacobus Postma, PhD1.
1University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands, 2Bank of Greece, Athens, Greece, 3Health Economist, University of Athens, Athens, Greece.
1University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands, 2Bank of Greece, Athens, Greece, 3Health Economist, University of Athens, Athens, Greece.
OBJECTIVES: The public health and economic burden of Herpes Zoster (HZ) is expected to escalate as populations age. Although HZ treatment accounts for a small share of total healthcare expenditure, about 0.05% in Germany, its prevention is often the focus of targeted preventive strategies due to its considerable health impact on older adults.
METHODS: We developed an actuarial pricing model to assess the impact of recombinant HZ vaccination on health insurance premiums. The model simulated 1 million insured individuals aged 50, 55, 60, and 65, projecting outcomes over their lifetimes. Age-specific HZ incidence data were obtained from the literature and vaccine efficacy from published clinical studies with annual waning rates of 1.2% before the age of 70 and 3.1% thereafter. Future insurance claims were discounted at 3%, and gross premiums were calculated as level annual equivalents including 15% loading. Vaccination cost is reimbursed by the government.
RESULTS: Across all age groups, vaccination decreased the present value of HZ-related claims from 57.4% to 79.2% for those aged 50 and 65, respectively. Annual gross premiums related to HZ dropped by €2.63 to €3.84 per insured person, with the greatest savings in older age groups due to higher HZ incidence. These results suggest average saving of €3.26 million per 1 million insured individuals for insurers. Considering HZ’s modest share of total health claims, the overall impact on total premiums was small, 0.034% reduction, which in turn will affect solvency capital requirements and profitability.
CONCLUSIONS: Recombinant HZ vaccination may lower long-term HZ-related claims and premiums. To accurately reflect the benefits of preventive interventions and vaccinated populations, actuarial models should evolve, enhancing risk-adjusted pricing and aligning with modern healthcare realities.
METHODS: We developed an actuarial pricing model to assess the impact of recombinant HZ vaccination on health insurance premiums. The model simulated 1 million insured individuals aged 50, 55, 60, and 65, projecting outcomes over their lifetimes. Age-specific HZ incidence data were obtained from the literature and vaccine efficacy from published clinical studies with annual waning rates of 1.2% before the age of 70 and 3.1% thereafter. Future insurance claims were discounted at 3%, and gross premiums were calculated as level annual equivalents including 15% loading. Vaccination cost is reimbursed by the government.
RESULTS: Across all age groups, vaccination decreased the present value of HZ-related claims from 57.4% to 79.2% for those aged 50 and 65, respectively. Annual gross premiums related to HZ dropped by €2.63 to €3.84 per insured person, with the greatest savings in older age groups due to higher HZ incidence. These results suggest average saving of €3.26 million per 1 million insured individuals for insurers. Considering HZ’s modest share of total health claims, the overall impact on total premiums was small, 0.034% reduction, which in turn will affect solvency capital requirements and profitability.
CONCLUSIONS: Recombinant HZ vaccination may lower long-term HZ-related claims and premiums. To accurately reflect the benefits of preventive interventions and vaccinated populations, actuarial models should evolve, enhancing risk-adjusted pricing and aligning with modern healthcare realities.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2025-11, ISPOR Europe 2025, Glasgow, Scotland
Value in Health, Volume 28, Issue S2
Code
SA77
Topic
Economic Evaluation, Health Policy & Regulatory, Study Approaches
Disease
Vaccines