Modeling the Future Clinical and Environmental Burden of Chronic Kidney Disease in Ghana and Uganda Between 2025 and 2030
Author(s)
Harrison G. Goldspink, BSc, MSc1, Laura Webber, PhD1, Lindsay Nicholson, PhD2, Nina Embleton, BSc, MSc, PhD2, Imran Rasheed, MBA, MBBS, MD3, Elliot Koranteng Tannor, BSc, MBA, MPhil, MD4, Vincent Boima, MD5, Anthony Batte, MD6, Qutaiba Al Manaseer, MBA7, Grace Kansiime, MD8, Robert Kalyesubula, PhD, MD6, Nelson Otieno Ochieng, MD9.
1HealthLumen Limited, London, United Kingdom, 2Maverex Limited, Newcastle, United Kingdom, 3AstraZeneca, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 4Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana, 5University of Ghana, Accra, Ghana, 6Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda, 7AstraZeneca, Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 8Mbarara University of Science and Technology, Mbarara, Uganda, 9AstraZeneca, Nairobi, Kenya.
1HealthLumen Limited, London, United Kingdom, 2Maverex Limited, Newcastle, United Kingdom, 3AstraZeneca, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 4Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana, 5University of Ghana, Accra, Ghana, 6Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda, 7AstraZeneca, Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 8Mbarara University of Science and Technology, Mbarara, Uganda, 9AstraZeneca, Nairobi, Kenya.
OBJECTIVES: The prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is estimated to be 15.8% in Africa, with a large proportion being undiagnosed until the later stages of the disease, due to some cases of CKD presenting asymptomatically. The objective of this study was to project the clinical and environmental burden of CKD between 2025 and 2030 in Ghana and Uganda.
METHODS: Using a microsimulation model, virtual populations for Ghana and Uganda were generated from 2025 to 2030 using demographic and epidemiological data. Each year, modelled individuals progressed through CKD stages based on age-related eGFR decline rates and related comorbidities, to generate population-level projections of the clinical burden of CKD. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with healthcare visits, such as specialist care and haemodialysis, were estimated and scaled to per-patient healthcare resource utilisation estimates of CKD patients on kidney replacement therapy (KRT). These estimates, alongside the estimated GHG emissions associated with hospitalisations, were scaled to produce population-level estimates in both countries.
RESULTS: The prevalence of CKD was projected to increase in Ghana and Uganda from 12.2% and 10.1% in 2025, to 13.1% and 10.4% in 2030, respectively, with only 2-3% being diagnosed. The prevalence of KRT was also projected to increase to 2,441 and 1,166 cases by 2030 in Ghana and Uganda, corresponding to the emission of 4,928 and 2,865 tonnes of GHG emissions respectively. Over 6 years, there were 783,856 and 280,780 hospitalisation days, resulting in 18,398 and 7,214 tonnes in GHG emissions in Ghana and Uganda.
CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the large future clinical and environmental burden of CKD in Ghana and Uganda within the current standard of care. The high prevalence of CKD and KRT highlight the urgent need for policy interventions, such as the Healthy Heart Africa programme, that focus on earlier diagnosis and treatment to mitigate future societal burden of CKD.
METHODS: Using a microsimulation model, virtual populations for Ghana and Uganda were generated from 2025 to 2030 using demographic and epidemiological data. Each year, modelled individuals progressed through CKD stages based on age-related eGFR decline rates and related comorbidities, to generate population-level projections of the clinical burden of CKD. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with healthcare visits, such as specialist care and haemodialysis, were estimated and scaled to per-patient healthcare resource utilisation estimates of CKD patients on kidney replacement therapy (KRT). These estimates, alongside the estimated GHG emissions associated with hospitalisations, were scaled to produce population-level estimates in both countries.
RESULTS: The prevalence of CKD was projected to increase in Ghana and Uganda from 12.2% and 10.1% in 2025, to 13.1% and 10.4% in 2030, respectively, with only 2-3% being diagnosed. The prevalence of KRT was also projected to increase to 2,441 and 1,166 cases by 2030 in Ghana and Uganda, corresponding to the emission of 4,928 and 2,865 tonnes of GHG emissions respectively. Over 6 years, there were 783,856 and 280,780 hospitalisation days, resulting in 18,398 and 7,214 tonnes in GHG emissions in Ghana and Uganda.
CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the large future clinical and environmental burden of CKD in Ghana and Uganda within the current standard of care. The high prevalence of CKD and KRT highlight the urgent need for policy interventions, such as the Healthy Heart Africa programme, that focus on earlier diagnosis and treatment to mitigate future societal burden of CKD.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2025-11, ISPOR Europe 2025, Glasgow, Scotland
Value in Health, Volume 28, Issue S2
Code
MSR151
Topic
Epidemiology & Public Health, Health Policy & Regulatory, Methodological & Statistical Research
Disease
No Additional Disease & Conditions/Specialized Treatment Areas, Urinary/Kidney Disorders