Presentation (CTI)

OBJECTIVES: Several novel therapies for severe atopic dermatitis (AD), a chronic inflammatory skin disease, have been assessed cost-effective in Sweden, i.e. providing added value-for-money. The objective of this study was to forecast the number of patients with AD on each respective treatment (januskinase [JAK] inhibitors abrocitinib, baricitinib, upadacitinib; interleukin inhibitors dupilumab, tralokinumab) over the next five-year period, nationally and in the six Health Care Regions.
METHODS: Individual level drug dispensation data were obtained from the Swedish Prescribed Drug Registry between January 2018 and April 2025. We used Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), a common and reliable forecasting method, to estimate the number of patients. Treatment costs at list price were calculated considering time of initiation, average dose strength and assuming full compliance.
RESULTS: In this ARIMA-forecast study, 3,573 additional patients on novel AD treatments were predicted to be on treatment in April 2030. The majority were predicted to use dupilumab (64%), followed by upadacitinib (16%). The accumulated, predicted cost increase over the five-year period was estimated to SEK 3.3 billion. Over the Health Care Regions, there is a large variability in the forecasted uptake of the respective treatments, revealing a regional variability in treatment preference. Nationally, our analysis suggests that there is a clear potential to reduce treatment related costs and reallocate healthcare resources to other prioritized uses, but this potential varies substantially across the Health Care Regions.
CONCLUSIONS: The number of patients receiving novel AD treatments in Sweden is projected to increase substantially over next five years, creating additional health gains at a reasonable cost per patient. Accumulated treatment costs will be substantial, but optimizing treatment choice could limit the costs while further increasing the total incremental net benefit.