Forecasting the Rise in Direct and Indirect Costs for Lung Cancer on the Example of Poland
Author(s)
JOANNA AUGUSTYNSKA, MSc1, Agnieszka Leszczynska, Msc1, Karolina Skóra, MPH, MSc1, Beata Rekawek, Msc1, Elzbieta Romanska, Msc1, Malgorzata Budasz Swiderska, PhD2, Michal Seweryn, PhD3.
1EconMed Europe, Kraków, Poland, 2Roche Polska, Warsaw, Poland, 3Andrzej Frycz Modrzewski Krakow University, Kraków, Poland.
1EconMed Europe, Kraków, Poland, 2Roche Polska, Warsaw, Poland, 3Andrzej Frycz Modrzewski Krakow University, Kraków, Poland.
OBJECTIVES: To assess the economic burden of lung cancer in Poland in 2040, including both direct healthcare expenditures and indirect societal costs, from a social perspective.
METHODS: The analysis utilized a cost-of-illness approach, integrating data from national databases (National Health Fund, Social Insurance Institution). Direct costs included public expenditures on lung cancer treatment, particularly in drugs and hospital services. Indirect costs—related to productivity loss due to morbidity and premature death—were calculated using the human capital method. Additional patient-level costs, such as travel and caregiving, were derived from a survey of 120 lung cancer patients. A linear trend was selected for population forecasting, as it had a high R² coefficient. The cost growth forecast was based on the inflation rate until 2040, assuming at least the coefficients published by the IMF (International Monetary Fund).
RESULTS: In 2040, the total projected expenditure related to lung cancer in Poland is estimated to reach PLN 24.51 billion. Of this amount, PLN 13.07 billion will be direct costs, including treatment and travel costs to healthcare facilities, while PLN 11.44 billion will be indirect costs, mainly from absenteeism (patients’ absence due to illness, premature deaths, and disabilities) and reduced household income. This represents a more than fivefold increase compared to the analyzed costs of illness in the base year 2023, which amounted to PLN 4.76 billion (PLN 2.54 billion direct costs and PLN 2.22 billion indirect costs).
CONCLUSIONS: Lung cancer imposes a significant financial burden on the Polish healthcare system and society, with substantial contributions from both direct treatment costs and indirect productivity losses. These data can inform future health economic planning and prioritization of resources in oncology care, from a broader social perspective.
METHODS: The analysis utilized a cost-of-illness approach, integrating data from national databases (National Health Fund, Social Insurance Institution). Direct costs included public expenditures on lung cancer treatment, particularly in drugs and hospital services. Indirect costs—related to productivity loss due to morbidity and premature death—were calculated using the human capital method. Additional patient-level costs, such as travel and caregiving, were derived from a survey of 120 lung cancer patients. A linear trend was selected for population forecasting, as it had a high R² coefficient. The cost growth forecast was based on the inflation rate until 2040, assuming at least the coefficients published by the IMF (International Monetary Fund).
RESULTS: In 2040, the total projected expenditure related to lung cancer in Poland is estimated to reach PLN 24.51 billion. Of this amount, PLN 13.07 billion will be direct costs, including treatment and travel costs to healthcare facilities, while PLN 11.44 billion will be indirect costs, mainly from absenteeism (patients’ absence due to illness, premature deaths, and disabilities) and reduced household income. This represents a more than fivefold increase compared to the analyzed costs of illness in the base year 2023, which amounted to PLN 4.76 billion (PLN 2.54 billion direct costs and PLN 2.22 billion indirect costs).
CONCLUSIONS: Lung cancer imposes a significant financial burden on the Polish healthcare system and society, with substantial contributions from both direct treatment costs and indirect productivity losses. These data can inform future health economic planning and prioritization of resources in oncology care, from a broader social perspective.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2025-11, ISPOR Europe 2025, Glasgow, Scotland
Value in Health, Volume 28, Issue S2
Code
EE476
Topic
Economic Evaluation, Health Policy & Regulatory
Topic Subcategory
Cost/Cost of Illness/Resource Use Studies, Novel & Social Elements of Value, Work & Home Productivity - Indirect Costs
Disease
Oncology