Unlocking the Value of RSV Adult Vaccination With Adjuvanted RSVpreF3 Vaccine in Germany: A Return on Investment Analysis Using an Integrated Actuarial-Macroeconomic Model
Author(s)
Eleftherios Zarkadoulas, MBA, FHAS, CERA1, Alen Marijam, MSc, PharmD1, Maria Waize, MASc, MSc2, Alexandra Kostakis, MSc2, Attila Mihalyi, MSc1, Nikos Kotsopoulos, MSc, PhD3.
1GSK, Wavre, Belgium, 2GSK, Munich, Germany, 3Univesity of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands.
1GSK, Wavre, Belgium, 2GSK, Munich, Germany, 3Univesity of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands.
OBJECTIVES: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of lower respiratory tract infections in older adults, especially those with underlying health-conditions. Besides imposing a substantial burden on the German healthcare system, RSV contributes to a diminished quality of life for patients, and to productivity losses for the entire economy. Vaccination programmes represent an effective strategy to alleviate RSV burden. Thus, economic evaluation is essential to adequately inform policies and their implementation. This study evaluates the return on investment (ROI) of an RSV vaccination programme with the adjuvanted RSVPreF3 vaccine in both general population (≥ 60 years) and high-risk groups aged 50-59 years in Germany, from a societal perspective.
METHODS: An integrated actuarial and macroeconomic model was developed to assess the ROI of the adjuvanted RSVPreF3 vaccine over a 10-year time horizon. The actuarial component projected age-specific RSV incidence, healthcare resource utilisation, and direct medical costs. The macroeconomic module estimated indirect costs, including productivity losses and broader economic impacts (fiscal revenue and gross domestic product [GDP] gains). Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained through vaccination were monetized using willingness-to-pay thresholds of 1-3 times the GDP/capita. ROI was calculated as the ratio of total monetized benefits—including healthcare savings and QALY gains—to vaccination programme costs. Sensitivity on the significant parameters were performed to evaluate the robustness of the model.
RESULTS: From societal perspective, RSV vaccination yielded a return on investment of €5.4-14.1 per €1 invested depending on the QALY valuation, with high internal rates of return. The primary drivers were economic productivity gains and the monetized value of improved health outcomes.
CONCLUSIONS: A vaccination programme with the adjuvanted RSVPreF3 vaccine in Germany would constitute a high-value public health investment, yielding positive returns. The results support informed decisions on public investment in RSV immunisation as a cost-saving strategy that delivers both substantial health benefits and economic gains.
METHODS: An integrated actuarial and macroeconomic model was developed to assess the ROI of the adjuvanted RSVPreF3 vaccine over a 10-year time horizon. The actuarial component projected age-specific RSV incidence, healthcare resource utilisation, and direct medical costs. The macroeconomic module estimated indirect costs, including productivity losses and broader economic impacts (fiscal revenue and gross domestic product [GDP] gains). Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained through vaccination were monetized using willingness-to-pay thresholds of 1-3 times the GDP/capita. ROI was calculated as the ratio of total monetized benefits—including healthcare savings and QALY gains—to vaccination programme costs. Sensitivity on the significant parameters were performed to evaluate the robustness of the model.
RESULTS: From societal perspective, RSV vaccination yielded a return on investment of €5.4-14.1 per €1 invested depending on the QALY valuation, with high internal rates of return. The primary drivers were economic productivity gains and the monetized value of improved health outcomes.
CONCLUSIONS: A vaccination programme with the adjuvanted RSVPreF3 vaccine in Germany would constitute a high-value public health investment, yielding positive returns. The results support informed decisions on public investment in RSV immunisation as a cost-saving strategy that delivers both substantial health benefits and economic gains.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2025-11, ISPOR Europe 2025, Glasgow, Scotland
Value in Health, Volume 28, Issue S2
Code
EE742
Topic
Economic Evaluation
Topic Subcategory
Novel & Social Elements of Value
Disease
Vaccines