Presentation (CTI)

OBJECTIVES: Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is a progressive and life-threatening disease with limited long-term treatment options. Sotatercept, a novel therapeutic agent, has demonstrated significant clinical benefits, and reduced mortality risk. Beyond its immediate effects, sotatercept offers substantial real option value (ROV) — the potential for patients to benefit from future medical innovations by remaining alive or eligible for emerging therapies. This analysis quantifies the ROV of sotatercept by projecting patient survival and treatment eligibility over time, in the context of the evolving PAH therapeutic landscape.
METHODS: A Markov model was developed to simulate survival and functional class (FC) progression in patients initiating treatment with sotatercept versus standard of care (SOC) in 2025. The model projected the proportion of patients alive or eligible (FC II/III) for future treatments. A pipeline review identified ten novel investigational PAH therapies in Phase II/III as of April 2023. Estimated European market entry timelines were derived based on clinical development status and regulatory assumptions.
RESULTS: By 2030, when the first three new therapies are expected to enter the European market, 89% of sotatercept-treated patients were projected to be alive versus 53% on SOC, or 61% versus 27% eligible for new therapies. By 2036, a total of seven new molecules are projected to become available. At that point, 72% of sotatercept patients would remain alive or 41% eligible, compared to 17% and 7% for BGT, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: Sotatercept provides not only immediate clinical value but also long-term value by enhancing patient access to future innovations and hope for even better health outcomes. This ROV underscores an alternative investment aspect in providing access to innovative treatments today.