Is Greece on Track to Meet the 90% HPV Vaccine Coverage Rate Target by 2030? A Mathematical Modeling Study
Author(s)
Ilias Gountas1, ANASTASIOS SKROUMPELOS, PhD2, Georgios Trimis, PhD3, Ugne Sabale, PhD4, Antonis Karokis, PhD3.
1Market access manager, MSD, Alimos, Greece, 2MSD, Athens, Greece, 3MSD, Alimos, Greece, 4Merck Sharp & Dohme International Service B.V., Vilnius, Lithuania.
1Market access manager, MSD, Alimos, Greece, 2MSD, Athens, Greece, 3MSD, Alimos, Greece, 4Merck Sharp & Dohme International Service B.V., Vilnius, Lithuania.
OBJECTIVES: The World Health Organization (WHO) urges countries to achieve 90% coverage rate (VCR) for HPV vaccination by 2030 for 15-year-old girls to eliminate cervical cancer. Mathematical modeling could provide valuable insights into whether a country is on track to timely meet the WHO’s VCR target. The aim of this study is to assess when Greece is expected to meet the 90% HPV VCR target, and to compute the cumulative number of 15-year-old girls who will remain unvaccinated by that year.
METHODS: To estimate the time required to reach the WHO VCR target and the number of unvaccinated girls, a published mathematical model (Gountas et al., ERV 2024) was utilized. Univariate regression models (linear, exponential, logarithmic, power, second-order, and piecewise linear regressions) were fitted to each country’s VCR, with the best model selected based on the highest R² value and visual inspection. The tool estimated the number of girls who remain unvaccinated at age 15 based on projected VCR growth and population projections from the World Bank.
RESULTS: Should VCR continue to increase according to historical trends, it is projected that Greece will meet the 90% HPV VCR target by 2036. To achieve the 90% HPV VCR target by 2030, Greece would need to increase the annual incremental VCR growth rate by 77%. The estimated number of girls remaining unprotected against HPV between 2025 and 2036 is 270,856 if the VCR remains constant at 55%. This number decreases to 200,000 if Greece meets the 90% VCR target by 2036, and further to 143,000 if Greece achieves the VCR target by 2030.
CONCLUSIONS: Greece is currently unlikely to meet the target of 90% HPV VCR by 2030, which would result in a significant number of girls remaining unprotected against cervical and other HPV-related cancers.
METHODS: To estimate the time required to reach the WHO VCR target and the number of unvaccinated girls, a published mathematical model (Gountas et al., ERV 2024) was utilized. Univariate regression models (linear, exponential, logarithmic, power, second-order, and piecewise linear regressions) were fitted to each country’s VCR, with the best model selected based on the highest R² value and visual inspection. The tool estimated the number of girls who remain unvaccinated at age 15 based on projected VCR growth and population projections from the World Bank.
RESULTS: Should VCR continue to increase according to historical trends, it is projected that Greece will meet the 90% HPV VCR target by 2036. To achieve the 90% HPV VCR target by 2030, Greece would need to increase the annual incremental VCR growth rate by 77%. The estimated number of girls remaining unprotected against HPV between 2025 and 2036 is 270,856 if the VCR remains constant at 55%. This number decreases to 200,000 if Greece meets the 90% VCR target by 2036, and further to 143,000 if Greece achieves the VCR target by 2030.
CONCLUSIONS: Greece is currently unlikely to meet the target of 90% HPV VCR by 2030, which would result in a significant number of girls remaining unprotected against cervical and other HPV-related cancers.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2025-11, ISPOR Europe 2025, Glasgow, Scotland
Value in Health, Volume 28, Issue S2
Code
EPH151
Topic
Clinical Outcomes, Epidemiology & Public Health, Health Policy & Regulatory
Topic Subcategory
Public Health
Disease
Oncology, Pediatrics, Vaccines