Health Risk Assessment of PM25 and O3 in China: A Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration Analysis...
Author(s)
Chuanlin Zhang1, Yunjun Tan, bachelor2, Qiu Zhang, PhD3, Shuli Zhang, Master4, Yingjie Wang, Master2, Yulun Luo, Master2, Linwei Liu, Master2, Xutong Huang, Master2.
1M.A., Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, China, 2Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, China, 3Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, China, China, 4School of Health Sciences, Guangdong Vocational University of Science and Technology, Guangzhou, China.
1M.A., Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, China, 2Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, China, 3Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, China, China, 4School of Health Sciences, Guangdong Vocational University of Science and Technology, Guangzhou, China.
OBJECTIVES: This study systematically evaluates the health impacts and economic burden of PM2.5 and O3 pollution in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region from 2015 to 2023 from a health economics perspective. The findings aim to provide scientific evidence for regional air quality management policy formulation and optimize public health resource allocation decisions.
METHODS: High-resolution (1km×1km) spatial distribution datasets of PM2.5 and O3 concentrations were constructed using the Kriging interpolation method. A population-weighted exposure model was employed to quantify regional exposure risk levels, while the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM) was applied to assess pollution-related premature mortality. Economic losses were estimated using the cost-of-illness method and human capital approach.
RESULTS: Spatial analysis revealed significant clustering patterns of PM2.5 and O3 pollution, with Moran's I index demonstrating progressively enhanced spatial autocorrelation over time. During 2015-2023, PM2.5 exposure-related premature mortality in the Pearl River Delta region showed marked reductions - cardiovascular disease mortality declined by 82.35% in Shenzhen and 79.97% in Guangzhou, with associated economic losses decreasing 60-80%. Respiratory mortality decreased by 80.52% in Shenzhen and 78.82% in Zhuhai. In contrast, O3 exposure exhibited divergent mortality trends: cardiovascular-cerebrovascular disease mortality in the Guangzhou-Foshan-Zhaoqing metropolitan area followed a U-shaped curve, with significant increases during 2019-2023. Health economic evaluation indicated O3 pollution's economic burden proportion rose from 35% (2015) to 52% (2023), exceeding the economic impact of PM2.5 in multiple megacities.
CONCLUSIONS: The study reveals differential health impacts of PM2.5 and O3 pollution in the Pearl River Delta region: while PM2.5-associated cardiovascular and respiratory mortality risks showed consistent declines, O3 exposure led to significant rebound in cardiovascular mortality in the Guangzhou-Foshan-Zhaoqing area and increasing respiratory disease risks in certain cities.
METHODS: High-resolution (1km×1km) spatial distribution datasets of PM2.5 and O3 concentrations were constructed using the Kriging interpolation method. A population-weighted exposure model was employed to quantify regional exposure risk levels, while the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM) was applied to assess pollution-related premature mortality. Economic losses were estimated using the cost-of-illness method and human capital approach.
RESULTS: Spatial analysis revealed significant clustering patterns of PM2.5 and O3 pollution, with Moran's I index demonstrating progressively enhanced spatial autocorrelation over time. During 2015-2023, PM2.5 exposure-related premature mortality in the Pearl River Delta region showed marked reductions - cardiovascular disease mortality declined by 82.35% in Shenzhen and 79.97% in Guangzhou, with associated economic losses decreasing 60-80%. Respiratory mortality decreased by 80.52% in Shenzhen and 78.82% in Zhuhai. In contrast, O3 exposure exhibited divergent mortality trends: cardiovascular-cerebrovascular disease mortality in the Guangzhou-Foshan-Zhaoqing metropolitan area followed a U-shaped curve, with significant increases during 2019-2023. Health economic evaluation indicated O3 pollution's economic burden proportion rose from 35% (2015) to 52% (2023), exceeding the economic impact of PM2.5 in multiple megacities.
CONCLUSIONS: The study reveals differential health impacts of PM2.5 and O3 pollution in the Pearl River Delta region: while PM2.5-associated cardiovascular and respiratory mortality risks showed consistent declines, O3 exposure led to significant rebound in cardiovascular mortality in the Guangzhou-Foshan-Zhaoqing area and increasing respiratory disease risks in certain cities.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2025-11, ISPOR Europe 2025, Glasgow, Scotland
Value in Health, Volume 28, Issue S2
Code
EPH119
Topic
Epidemiology & Public Health, Real World Data & Information Systems
Topic Subcategory
Public Health
Disease
Cardiovascular Disorders (including MI, Stroke, Circulatory), Respiratory-Related Disorders (Allergy, Asthma, Smoking, Other Respiratory)