Presentation (CTI)

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the extent to which dynamic transmission models have been employed in infectious disease vaccine submissions across the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United States, Canada, and Scandinavian nations. The aim was to compare the integration of these models in national decision-making processes for new vaccine recommendations.
METHODS: National advisory bodies (e.g., JCVI, STIKO, HAS, NACI, ACIP) were examined for evidence of dynamic transmission model usage in vaccine submissions. The analysis focused on submissions over the past three years for new or expanded infectious disease vaccines, such as COVID-19, pneumococcal conjugate, and RSV vaccines. Use of dynamic models to support submissions was determined by their mention in official recommendations and supporting economic evaluations.
RESULTS: The review found that dynamic transmission models are widely used in vaccine submissions to national advisory bodies, particularly for vaccines where indirect (herd) effects are significant or where pandemic responses are involved. The UK, US, Canada, and France frequently incorporate these models into their assessments and policy recommendations. Similarly, Scandinavian countries have demonstrated substantial use of dynamic models in evaluating major new vaccines. Other countries, such as Germany, Italy, and Spain, also report use of dynamic models, though practices vary depending on the vaccine and context.
CONCLUSIONS: Dynamic transmission modelling is an established component of vaccine submission processes in major high-income countries. The integration of such models supports evidence-based public health policy, though differences in requirements and implementation persist between countries. Static models remain common for vaccines without significant indirect effects, potentially highlighting the need for guidelines on when the additional effort required of dynamic models would be justified. Increased transparency and harmonization of model use may further enhance the robustness of vaccine policy development internationally.