Estimating the Economic Burden of Potential Chikungunya Outbreaks in Southern Europe
Author(s)
Adrianne M. de Roo, MSc1, Gerard T. Vondeling, MSc1, Alexander van Schoonhoven, MSc2, Eric Plennevaux, PhD3, David Roiz, PhD4.
1Valneva Austria GmbH, Vienna, Austria, 2Asc Academics, Groningen, Netherlands, 3Valneva France SAS, Lyon, France, 4French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development (IRD), Marseille, France.
1Valneva Austria GmbH, Vienna, Austria, 2Asc Academics, Groningen, Netherlands, 3Valneva France SAS, Lyon, France, 4French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development (IRD), Marseille, France.
OBJECTIVES: Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) outbreaks are an increasing public health concern in Europe, driven by climate change and the expanding range of Aedes albopictus. The virus’s epidemic potential and long-lasting health effects, particularly chronic joint pain, can lead to substantial social and economic disruption. As Southern European cities become increasingly susceptible to CHIKV introduction via travel and tourism, this study aimed to model the potential size and economic impact of CHIKV outbreaks in two major tourist hubs: Nice and Rome.
METHODS: We adapted a previously published dynamic transmission model, originally developed for Anzio and Rome, to simulate a CHIKV outbreak in Nice, France. The model uses a temperature-dependent SEIR-SEI framework to capture human-mosquito transmission dynamics, incorporating local climate data, mosquito lifecycle characteristics, and human-mosquito interactions. Various emergency vaccination scenarios were simulated to assess potential mitigation effects. Based on model outputs, we explored the potential economic burden by considering cost categories such as healthcare use, productivity losses, and outbreak management.
RESULTS: Model simulations estimate that a CHIKV outbreak in Nice could result in approximately 16,000 infections, or 4.8% of the city’s population. Prior modelling for Rome estimated that up to 6.2% of Rome's population - approximately 170,800 individuals - could be affected under similar conditions. Emergency vaccination scenarios demonstrated that even modest coverage could significantly reduce outbreak size. Preliminary economic estimates indicate that such outbreaks could impose a substantial burden, driven by indirect costs such as work absenteeism and lost productivity, in addition to direct healthcare expenditures and public health response efforts.
CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the potential public health and economic impact of CHIKV outbreaks in urban Southern Europe. Timely deployment of emergency vaccination, alongside with early detection and response strategies, is critical to minimizing outbreak consequences. The findings emphasize the need for proactive preparedness to address emerging vector-borne threats in vulnerable urban settings.
METHODS: We adapted a previously published dynamic transmission model, originally developed for Anzio and Rome, to simulate a CHIKV outbreak in Nice, France. The model uses a temperature-dependent SEIR-SEI framework to capture human-mosquito transmission dynamics, incorporating local climate data, mosquito lifecycle characteristics, and human-mosquito interactions. Various emergency vaccination scenarios were simulated to assess potential mitigation effects. Based on model outputs, we explored the potential economic burden by considering cost categories such as healthcare use, productivity losses, and outbreak management.
RESULTS: Model simulations estimate that a CHIKV outbreak in Nice could result in approximately 16,000 infections, or 4.8% of the city’s population. Prior modelling for Rome estimated that up to 6.2% of Rome's population - approximately 170,800 individuals - could be affected under similar conditions. Emergency vaccination scenarios demonstrated that even modest coverage could significantly reduce outbreak size. Preliminary economic estimates indicate that such outbreaks could impose a substantial burden, driven by indirect costs such as work absenteeism and lost productivity, in addition to direct healthcare expenditures and public health response efforts.
CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the potential public health and economic impact of CHIKV outbreaks in urban Southern Europe. Timely deployment of emergency vaccination, alongside with early detection and response strategies, is critical to minimizing outbreak consequences. The findings emphasize the need for proactive preparedness to address emerging vector-borne threats in vulnerable urban settings.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2025-11, ISPOR Europe 2025, Glasgow, Scotland
Value in Health, Volume 28, Issue S2
Code
EE427
Topic
Economic Evaluation, Epidemiology & Public Health
Topic Subcategory
Cost/Cost of Illness/Resource Use Studies
Disease
Infectious Disease (non-vaccine), Vaccines