Presentation (CTI)

OBJECTIVES: Smoking is the cause of serious disease in smokers which has a significant burden on both public health and the economy. In response, there is growing interest in tobacco harm reduction strategies, particularly the substitution of conventional cigarettes with electronic vapor products (EVP). These alternatives have the potential to reduce risk as they do not burn tobacco. They contain and produce fewer and significantly lower levels of harmful chemicals compared to cigarette smoke. To date, most scientific modeling efforts have focused on estimating the harm reduction potential of EVP use, using dynamic population models (DPMs) that simulate transitions between smoking, vaping, dual use, and stopping all nicotine use. These projections have been integrated with disease-specific mortality and morbidity models to estimate health outcomes.
METHODS: In this study, we expand this approach by integrating economic parameters, specifically healthcare and social care costs, into our DPM framework. Using UK historical prevalence data (2014-2022) from the Office for National Statistics and time series forecasting, our DPM simulates the long-term healthcare and social care costs impact of vaping compared to smoking.
RESULTS: According to our DPM, the presence of EVP on the UK market leads to substantial long-term healthcare and social care savings compared to a scenario in which only cigarettes were available.
CONCLUSIONS: These findings reinforce the potential value of harm reduction strategies, not only for improving public health but also for easing pressure on healthcare systems. When broader economic factors, such as productivity gains and informal social care, are considered, the overall societal benefits of switching smokers to less harmful alternatives become even more compelling. This information can support evidence-based decision-making and the development of risk-proportionate regulatory frameworks for potentially reduced-risk alternative nicotine products.