Presentation (CTI)

OBJECTIVES: The Romanian Government runs a national social program to boost Romania's birth rate by offering financial support to couples and individuals. It provides two vouchers: 1.000 EUR voucher for infertility treatments and a 2.000 EUR voucher for specific medical procedures. This analysis assessed whether social and economic benefits of future children justify the investment.
METHODS: A generational accounting model considered a cohort of 10,000 in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatments, with an assumed average success rate defined at a level of 30%. The model accounted for various costs, including those related to pregnancy and childbirth monitoring, birth expenses, lifetime medical costs, maternity and parental leave, educational expenses from nursery to post-doctoral studies, unemployment and other social protection benefits, sick leave, and pensions. The model considered revenues from wages and salaries, VAT, pension taxes, and excise duties. All of these costs were sourced from government health and education reports, national statistics, labor market studies, and official budget documents.
RESULTS: Total costs per cohort were estimated at 695,786,227EUR, whereas total income at 770,080,000EUR, resulting in a net income estimated at 74,294,658EUR, or 7,429.5EUR for each IVF treatment supported by the program. The comprehensive sensitivity analysis, comprising 10,000 simulation runs with simultaneous random variation of 108 assumptions, revealed a wide distribution of potential net income for the cohort outcomes, ranging from -5,885,867 EUR (minimum) to 705,084,156 EUR (maximum), and notably, even the first quartile showed a positive value of 172,546,273 EUR, strongly suggesting that positive net income results persist across the vast majority of potential assumption combinations.
CONCLUSIONS: The IVF social national program represents an useful investment in Romania's future from a socio-economic standpoint. While the model has not included quantification of significant psychological benefits for recipients and intangible advantages for the state, these factors remain highly relevant considerations.