Estimating the Future Burden of Unvaccinated Girls Against Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) in Europe: A Modeling Study
Author(s)
Ilias Gountas, PhD1, Aimee Fox, PhD2, Ugne Sabale, MSc3.
1MSD, Alimos, Greece, 2Adelphi Values PROVE, Bollington, United Kingdom, 3MSD Lithuania, Vilnius, Lithuania.
1MSD, Alimos, Greece, 2Adelphi Values PROVE, Bollington, United Kingdom, 3MSD Lithuania, Vilnius, Lithuania.
OBJECTIVES: The World Health Organization (WHO) urges countries to achieve 90% HPV vaccination coverage rate (VCR) by 2030 for 15-year-old girls to eliminate cervical cancer. Understanding the potential burden of unvaccinated girls in Europe is critical to addressing elimination goals. This study estimates the number of 15-year-old girls who remains unvaccinated in Europe by 2030 and 2040.
METHODS: To project the number of unvaccinated girls, a framework populated with the WHO’s publicly available VCR data (second dose, 2017-2023) was used with 20 European countries. Univariate regression models (linear, exponential, logarithmic, power, 2nd order and piecewise linear regressions) were fitted to each country’s VCR and selected based on highest R2 and visual inspection. The tool projected VCR growth until 2040 and estimated the number of girls who remain unvaccinated at 15 years each year until 2040 based on the respective target population size.
RESULTS: Of the 20 European countries included in the analysis, only eight are expected to reach 90% before 2030. If VCR continues to grow following the observed trajectory in 2017-2023, the accumulated number of unvaccinated girls between 2024 and 2030 would approximately reach 4,429,000. This includes 123,760 in Belgium, 195,770 in Bulgaria, 14,510 in Cyprus, 103,155 in Czechia, 33,320 in Denmark, 45,650 in Finland, 1,322,800 in France, 1,209,130 in Germany, 55,560 in Hungary, 350 in Iceland, 51,680 in Ireland, 590,170 in Italy, 34,550 in Latvia, 221,520 in the Netherlands, 9,660 in Norway, 29,210 in Portugal, 34,590 in Slovenia, 215,350 in Spain, 59,390 in Sweden, and 78,950 in Switzerland. By 2040, the accumulated number of unvaccinated girls is projected to approximately reach 7,109,000.
CONCLUSIONS: Our study estimates that a substantial number of girls are expected to remain unvaccinated against HPV due to suboptimal vaccine uptake in European countries. Therefore, it is important to develop catch-up programs in late adolescent and adult populations.
METHODS: To project the number of unvaccinated girls, a framework populated with the WHO’s publicly available VCR data (second dose, 2017-2023) was used with 20 European countries. Univariate regression models (linear, exponential, logarithmic, power, 2nd order and piecewise linear regressions) were fitted to each country’s VCR and selected based on highest R2 and visual inspection. The tool projected VCR growth until 2040 and estimated the number of girls who remain unvaccinated at 15 years each year until 2040 based on the respective target population size.
RESULTS: Of the 20 European countries included in the analysis, only eight are expected to reach 90% before 2030. If VCR continues to grow following the observed trajectory in 2017-2023, the accumulated number of unvaccinated girls between 2024 and 2030 would approximately reach 4,429,000. This includes 123,760 in Belgium, 195,770 in Bulgaria, 14,510 in Cyprus, 103,155 in Czechia, 33,320 in Denmark, 45,650 in Finland, 1,322,800 in France, 1,209,130 in Germany, 55,560 in Hungary, 350 in Iceland, 51,680 in Ireland, 590,170 in Italy, 34,550 in Latvia, 221,520 in the Netherlands, 9,660 in Norway, 29,210 in Portugal, 34,590 in Slovenia, 215,350 in Spain, 59,390 in Sweden, and 78,950 in Switzerland. By 2040, the accumulated number of unvaccinated girls is projected to approximately reach 7,109,000.
CONCLUSIONS: Our study estimates that a substantial number of girls are expected to remain unvaccinated against HPV due to suboptimal vaccine uptake in European countries. Therefore, it is important to develop catch-up programs in late adolescent and adult populations.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2025-11, ISPOR Europe 2025, Glasgow, Scotland
Value in Health, Volume 28, Issue S2
Code
EPH88
Topic
Epidemiology & Public Health, Health Policy & Regulatory
Topic Subcategory
Public Health
Disease
Vaccines