Presentation (CTI)

OBJECTIVES: Even in the post-pandemic era, COVID-19 continues to cause significant health system strain and long-term illness, particularly among older adults and those with comorbidities. This study aimed to (1) estimate the potential clinical impact of COVID-19 vaccination with mRNA-1273 in those at high-risk of severe COVID-19 aged <65 years and adults ≥ 65 years in the UK compared to no vaccination and (2) compare the impact of vaccination across a narrower target population of those at high-risk of severe COVID-19 aged <75 years and adults ≥ 75 years.
METHODS: A dynamic transmission model (DTM) was adapted to predict COVID-19 incidence and hospitalisations in the UK population using 2023/2024 age-specific hospitalisations data from UKHSA. Base-case vaccine coverage rates (VCR) were based on observed uptake in England from Autumn 2024. Vaccine effectiveness estimates were derived from a real-world study of KP.2 adapted mRNA-1273.
RESULTS: Vaccination with mRNA-1273 in high-risk individuals <65 and adults ≥ 65 years in the UK was predicted to reduce COVID-19 associated hospitalisations, critical care admissions and deaths by 34,000 (-23%), 3200 (-21%), and 7200 (-24%) respectively, compared to no-vaccination. Restricting vaccination to high-risk individuals <75 and adults ≥75 years would result in almost 6000 (5%) more COVID-19 associated hospitalisations, 900 (7%) more critical care admissions and 1100 (5%) more COVID-19 associated deaths compared to maintaining broader vaccination eligibility.
CONCLUSIONS: Despite uncertainties of the post-pandemic COVID-19 burden in the UK, vaccination of adults ≥ 65 years and high-risk individuals <65 results in significant reductions in severe COVID-19 outcomes including hospitalisation, critical care admission and deaths. Broader vaccination eligibility to include the full 65-74 age group aligns with the UK government’s prevention-oriented health policy goals and contributes to healthcare system resilience.