Assessing the Clinical Impact of Decreasing Weight in Young Adults Using the Metabo-Reno-Cardiovascular Disease Model©
Author(s)
Mafalda Ramos, MSc1, Inger Smith, MSc2, Mark Lamotte, MD3.
1Th(is)²Modeling, Asse, Belgium, 2Novo Nordisk; White Box Health Economics Ltd, Copenhagen, Denmark, 3Cardiologist - Health economic specialist, Th(is)²Modeling, Asse, Belgium.
1Th(is)²Modeling, Asse, Belgium, 2Novo Nordisk; White Box Health Economics Ltd, Copenhagen, Denmark, 3Cardiologist - Health economic specialist, Th(is)²Modeling, Asse, Belgium.
OBJECTIVES: HTA bodies typically recommend weight-loss treatments for patients with obesity who already have comorbidities rather than preventing obesity-related complications, such as type 2 diabetes (AT2D) and cardiovascular disease. This modelling study aimed to assess the clinical impact of reducing weight at different starting ages using the Metabo Reno Cardiovascular Disease Model (MRCDM©) before complications of obesity have occurred.
METHODS: In the MRCDM©, different age cohorts were programmed, from 20, 35 and 50 years of age. The starting BMIs were varied between 40 and 30 kg/m² without progression over time. Similar assumptions were applied to cholesterol and blood pressure progressions, both initiated at normal values. Published risk equations were used to predict the risk of T2D, cardiovascular disease, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), weight-related cancer (WRC), total knee replacement (TKR), sleep apnoea, and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). After T2D occurs, (HbA1c = 6.5%), HbA1c progressed following the UKPDS-90 equation. US specific general mortality was applied.
RESULTS: At the age of 20 years, with a BMI of 30 versus 40 kg/m² the MRCDM© predicts a LE of 76.34 versus 74.18 years (losing 10 points of BMI extends LE by 2.16 years). In the older age groups (35 and 50 years), the same BMI reduction results in less 1.98 and 1.41 years LE respectively. Predictions are aligned with the US life expectancy (LE) of 77.43 years for a BMI 29.27 kg/m².For a BMI of respectively 40 and 30 kg/m², cumulative incidence of T2D decreased from 56% to 41% Risk of CVD decreased by 4.36%, ESKD 1.27%, WRC 4.59%, MASLD 3.66%, and TKR 8.54%. In the older age groups weight loss results in less events being avoided.
CONCLUSIONS: The sooner weight is reduced, the higher the benefit will be on life expectancy, avoiding and delaying CVD and on other obesity-related complications.
METHODS: In the MRCDM©, different age cohorts were programmed, from 20, 35 and 50 years of age. The starting BMIs were varied between 40 and 30 kg/m² without progression over time. Similar assumptions were applied to cholesterol and blood pressure progressions, both initiated at normal values. Published risk equations were used to predict the risk of T2D, cardiovascular disease, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), weight-related cancer (WRC), total knee replacement (TKR), sleep apnoea, and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). After T2D occurs, (HbA1c = 6.5%), HbA1c progressed following the UKPDS-90 equation. US specific general mortality was applied.
RESULTS: At the age of 20 years, with a BMI of 30 versus 40 kg/m² the MRCDM© predicts a LE of 76.34 versus 74.18 years (losing 10 points of BMI extends LE by 2.16 years). In the older age groups (35 and 50 years), the same BMI reduction results in less 1.98 and 1.41 years LE respectively. Predictions are aligned with the US life expectancy (LE) of 77.43 years for a BMI 29.27 kg/m².For a BMI of respectively 40 and 30 kg/m², cumulative incidence of T2D decreased from 56% to 41% Risk of CVD decreased by 4.36%, ESKD 1.27%, WRC 4.59%, MASLD 3.66%, and TKR 8.54%. In the older age groups weight loss results in less events being avoided.
CONCLUSIONS: The sooner weight is reduced, the higher the benefit will be on life expectancy, avoiding and delaying CVD and on other obesity-related complications.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2025-11, ISPOR Europe 2025, Glasgow, Scotland
Value in Health, Volume 28, Issue S2
Code
CO15
Topic
Clinical Outcomes, Economic Evaluation
Topic Subcategory
Clinical Outcomes Assessment
Disease
Cardiovascular Disorders (including MI, Stroke, Circulatory), Diabetes/Endocrine/Metabolic Disorders (including obesity), Urinary/Kidney Disorders