A Model-Based Analysis of the Impact on Labor Market Supply From Enhanced Tobacco Control Strategies in Denmark
Author(s)
Thea Kirkegaard Kjær, MS1, Renee Olesen, MHS1, Lau Caspar Thygesen, Ph.D., MS2, Jes Søgaard, Professor Emeritus2, Lars Holger Ehlers, Ph.D., MS3.
1Nordic Institute of Health Economics, Aarhus, Denmark, 2University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark, 3Nordic Institute of Health Economics, Aarhus C, Denmark.
1Nordic Institute of Health Economics, Aarhus, Denmark, 2University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark, 3Nordic Institute of Health Economics, Aarhus C, Denmark.
OBJECTIVES: It is well-established that smoking is associated with a high morbidity and mortality risk, and interventions targeting smoking prevalence reduction are among the most cost-effective preventive strategies. This analysis aims to estimate the potential impact on the number of extra labour supply full-time equivalents in 2035 from enhanced tobacco control strategies in Denmark.
METHODS: The analysis is based on a Danish replication of the Smokefree Generation Model that was designed to inform policy decisions in the UK. The model is a dynamic cohort (Markov) model adapted to predict the impact on the Danish labour supply from the following tobacco control strategies: 1) Continuation of current policies; 2) Smokefree generation 2012; 3) Only 5% smokers in 2030; and 4) Only 5% smokers in 2035. The primary outcome is the number of full-time equivalents where one full-time equivalent equals the total hours of one full-time worker. The population is divided into never-smokers, smokers, and former smokers with smoking cessation either within the last 10 years or over 10 years ago based on data from the National Health Profile 2023. All projected outcomes in the model are driven by evidence of the relationship between smoking status, health risks, and employment relevant for the Danish context. The population projections in the model were calibrated against Statistics Denmark's population projections.
RESULTS: The analysis shows that enhanced tobacco control strategies (strategies 2-4) may increase labour supply by between 4,200 and 38,000 full-time equivalents (0.2 - 1.5%) in 2035 compared to continuation of current policies (strategy 1). Short term effects on labour supply are higher when focusing on smoking cessation rather than smoking initiation.
CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, this analysis shows the impact of enhanced tobacco control strategies on the labour supply in Denmark.
METHODS: The analysis is based on a Danish replication of the Smokefree Generation Model that was designed to inform policy decisions in the UK. The model is a dynamic cohort (Markov) model adapted to predict the impact on the Danish labour supply from the following tobacco control strategies: 1) Continuation of current policies; 2) Smokefree generation 2012; 3) Only 5% smokers in 2030; and 4) Only 5% smokers in 2035. The primary outcome is the number of full-time equivalents where one full-time equivalent equals the total hours of one full-time worker. The population is divided into never-smokers, smokers, and former smokers with smoking cessation either within the last 10 years or over 10 years ago based on data from the National Health Profile 2023. All projected outcomes in the model are driven by evidence of the relationship between smoking status, health risks, and employment relevant for the Danish context. The population projections in the model were calibrated against Statistics Denmark's population projections.
RESULTS: The analysis shows that enhanced tobacco control strategies (strategies 2-4) may increase labour supply by between 4,200 and 38,000 full-time equivalents (0.2 - 1.5%) in 2035 compared to continuation of current policies (strategy 1). Short term effects on labour supply are higher when focusing on smoking cessation rather than smoking initiation.
CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, this analysis shows the impact of enhanced tobacco control strategies on the labour supply in Denmark.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2025-11, ISPOR Europe 2025, Glasgow, Scotland
Value in Health, Volume 28, Issue S2
Code
EE22
Topic
Economic Evaluation, Epidemiology & Public Health, Health Policy & Regulatory
Topic Subcategory
Work & Home Productivity - Indirect Costs
Disease
Respiratory-Related Disorders (Allergy, Asthma, Smoking, Other Respiratory)