Presentation (CTI)

OBJECTIVES: Our research aimed to assess the potential impact of an Electronic Vapor Product (EVP) flavor ban in the UK market. It is crucial to ensure that regulatory policies effectively balance public health objectives with consumer behavior and market dynamics.
METHODS: To assess the potential health impact of a flavored EVP ban, we developed an innovative dynamic population model approach that uses prevalence projections and user behavior scenarios. The model was based on the collection of EVP and smoking prevalence data, over a minimum period of five to six years, which was then used to project future trends for subsequent years. Scenarios on vapers' behavior in response to flavor bans were developed. This enabled predictions to be made regarding changes in smoking and vaping prevalence over a 30-year period. The Prophet trend analysis model was selected for data assessment. Prevalence projections were combined with representative population trajectories for different vaping and smoking statuses in order to estimate health impact outcomes using mortality and morbidity models.
RESULTS: When applied to the UK market, our dynamic population model indicated that a flavor ban may have a negative impact on cumulative mortality rate in 96% of the projections due to predicted changes in vaping and smoking behavior. For the main diseases commonly associated with smoking the model indicated that a flavor ban had a negative impact on population health in 84% of the projections. It is important to note that the predictions made by the model do not consider other potential future factors that could influence smoking prevalence. The model specifically examines the effects of a flavor ban, operating under the assumption that all other variables remain constant.
CONCLUSIONS: Our model indicates that a potential flavor ban in the UK market may have a negative impact on population health through predicted changes in vaping and smoking behavior.