Estimating the Prevalence of Chronic Conditions in Population Health Management
Author(s)
Abdulrahman Alsheikh, MD, MPH1, Shatha Alshaibi, BSc, MS2, Mohammed Aljawadi, MPH, PhD3, Lama Rashed, BS, MS1;
1Lean Business Services, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 2Lean Business Service, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 3Lean Business Servcies, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
1Lean Business Services, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 2Lean Business Service, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 3Lean Business Servcies, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Presentation Documents
OBJECTIVES: This study evaluates the prevalence of chronic conditions in Saudi Arabia, examines limitations in current measurement practices, and proposes National Health Registries (NHRs) as a comprehensive alternative for effective population health management.
METHODS: An epidemiological framework was applied, stratifying the Saudi population into 16 age groups and two genders across 20 geographic health clusters (1280 strata). Individuals were classified as “active” based on healthcare visit frequencies. Representativeness was ensured with a 99% confidence interval (CI) and a 1% margin of error (ME). Prevalence estimates for chronic conditions, including diabetes, were validated against WHO benchmarks.
RESULTS: The study analyzed 33.1 million individuals, 80% of whom were classified as active. Most strata demonstrated high representativeness (97-99%), though smaller clusters (e.g., Northern Borders) exhibited wider MEs (5-8%) in specific subgroups, particularly older females. The prevalence of diabetes in Saudi Arabia was 9.1%. Comparisons of diabetes prevalence among Saudi and non-Saudi males and females aligned closely with WHO data, demonstrating consistent and reliable estimates.
CONCLUSIONS: Current approaches to measuring chronic condition prevalence in Saudi Arabia face challenges with representativeness and methodological consistency, limiting their effectiveness for health planning. NHRs offer a robust and scalable solution, enabling accurate prevalence estimates and supporting evidence-based decision-making. Adopting NHRs would improve population health strategies, resource allocation, and the equitable delivery of healthcare, advancing community well-being.
METHODS: An epidemiological framework was applied, stratifying the Saudi population into 16 age groups and two genders across 20 geographic health clusters (1280 strata). Individuals were classified as “active” based on healthcare visit frequencies. Representativeness was ensured with a 99% confidence interval (CI) and a 1% margin of error (ME). Prevalence estimates for chronic conditions, including diabetes, were validated against WHO benchmarks.
RESULTS: The study analyzed 33.1 million individuals, 80% of whom were classified as active. Most strata demonstrated high representativeness (97-99%), though smaller clusters (e.g., Northern Borders) exhibited wider MEs (5-8%) in specific subgroups, particularly older females. The prevalence of diabetes in Saudi Arabia was 9.1%. Comparisons of diabetes prevalence among Saudi and non-Saudi males and females aligned closely with WHO data, demonstrating consistent and reliable estimates.
CONCLUSIONS: Current approaches to measuring chronic condition prevalence in Saudi Arabia face challenges with representativeness and methodological consistency, limiting their effectiveness for health planning. NHRs offer a robust and scalable solution, enabling accurate prevalence estimates and supporting evidence-based decision-making. Adopting NHRs would improve population health strategies, resource allocation, and the equitable delivery of healthcare, advancing community well-being.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2025-05, ISPOR 2025, Montréal, Quebec, CA
Value in Health, Volume 28, Issue S1
Code
EPH39
Topic
Epidemiology & Public Health
Disease
No Additional Disease & Conditions/Specialized Treatment Areas, SDC: Diabetes/Endocrine/Metabolic Disorders (including obesity)