Health and Economic Value of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Against Antimicrobial Resistance in Brazil: An Agent-based Simulation Study
Author(s)
Paige Q. Ngo, PharmD, Amy Wu, PharmD, Ashley Lee, MHA, Sachiko Ozawa, PhD;
UNC, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
UNC, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
Presentation Documents
OBJECTIVES: According to the World Health Organization (WHO), antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is one of the top global public health threats with a significant associated mortality and cost burden. Currently, antibiotic consumption in Brazil is high, which is contributing to AMR growth. The pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) could combat AMR due to its ability to reduce infections and antibiotic utilization, but this has not yet been documented in Brazil. This study used an agent-based model to evaluate the impact of PCV coverage on pneumococcal infections, AMR, and related health and economic outcomes in Brazil.
METHODS: The DREAMR (Dynamic Representation of the Economics of AMR) model was developed to assess the value of childhood pneumococcal vaccination in slowing AMR progression. The model simulates care seeking and the treatment paradigm for individuals affected by streptococcus pneumonia as well as AMR development among bacteria. Epidemiologic, cost, AMR, and immunization data were obtained from various literature. We assessed the impact of PCV vaccination in Brazil over a 5-year duration under four scenarios: counterfactual of no vaccination, current 10-valent (PCV10) vaccination (assuming constant coverage), 15-valent (PCV15) vaccination (assuming same coverage rates as PCV10), and increased PCV15 coverage (increased to 95% coverage in all geopolitical zones).
RESULTS: Compared to no vaccination, current PCV10 vaccination reduces annual incidences of pneumococcal diseases, preventing deaths and treatments each year, and controls AMR growth. However, if Brazil switches to PCV15, these benefits are likely to be greater. If Brazil could also improve coverage, this would further control nationwide growth in resistance to antibiotics as well as reduce preventable healthcare costs to treat pneumococcal diseases.
CONCLUSIONS: By switching to PCV15 and working to improve vaccination coverage, Brazil would benefit not only from reduced diseases and healthcare costs, but also from the ability to better control the development of AMR.
METHODS: The DREAMR (Dynamic Representation of the Economics of AMR) model was developed to assess the value of childhood pneumococcal vaccination in slowing AMR progression. The model simulates care seeking and the treatment paradigm for individuals affected by streptococcus pneumonia as well as AMR development among bacteria. Epidemiologic, cost, AMR, and immunization data were obtained from various literature. We assessed the impact of PCV vaccination in Brazil over a 5-year duration under four scenarios: counterfactual of no vaccination, current 10-valent (PCV10) vaccination (assuming constant coverage), 15-valent (PCV15) vaccination (assuming same coverage rates as PCV10), and increased PCV15 coverage (increased to 95% coverage in all geopolitical zones).
RESULTS: Compared to no vaccination, current PCV10 vaccination reduces annual incidences of pneumococcal diseases, preventing deaths and treatments each year, and controls AMR growth. However, if Brazil switches to PCV15, these benefits are likely to be greater. If Brazil could also improve coverage, this would further control nationwide growth in resistance to antibiotics as well as reduce preventable healthcare costs to treat pneumococcal diseases.
CONCLUSIONS: By switching to PCV15 and working to improve vaccination coverage, Brazil would benefit not only from reduced diseases and healthcare costs, but also from the ability to better control the development of AMR.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2025-05, ISPOR 2025, Montréal, Quebec, CA
Value in Health, Volume 28, Issue S1
Code
EPH27
Topic
Epidemiology & Public Health
Topic Subcategory
Public Health
Disease
STA: Vaccines