OBJECTIVES: Migraine is the second most common neurological disability and causes significant challenges to healthcare systems worldwide, especially with low outpatient rates in China. As a drug recommended by China's guidelines, rimegepant has been included Boao Lecheng International Medical Tourism Pilot Zone in Hainan China. This study aims to evaluate the budget impact of Rimegepant for individuals aged 18+ years in the Chinese healthcare system and assess its potential cost.

METHODS: A budget impact model was designed to estimate triptan-specific drugs failure for Rimegepant in 2022. We predicted the target population using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA) Model in the future 4 years. The market share data was derived from the real-world evidence of the Chinese mainland market and was predicted 4 years by the grey prediction model. The baseline annual cost data was derived from the literature and a discount rate of 2% per year was taken into. Finally, one-way sensitivity analysis was conducted to test the robustness.

RESULTS: From 2022 to 2026, the annual budget for the Rimegepant medical insurance fund will increase by 85.277 million yuan, and the Triptans' annual budget for the medical insurance fund go up by 184.573 million yuan, respectively. The annual growth rate of the triptans medical insurance fund is significantly higher than that of Rimegepant. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that the main factors affecting the model were drug cost, market share and target population.

CONCLUSIONS: The trend of Rimegepant for the Chinese population aged 18+ years on the medical insurance fund will down in the next four years, which be lower than that of triptans from the Chinese healthcare payer perspective. Although the overall health care budget spending will be increase slightly, remains affordable over the next four years.