OBJECTIVES: This study uses newly available, linked UK patient-level data to identify one of the largest dementia cohorts in Europe and determine the health and social care burden of dementia by severity from 2024 to 2040.

METHODS: A new dementia patient cohort of 26,097 people in North West London was developed using the DiscoverNOW secure data environment. 2,757 of these people with dementia could be classified by disease severity using MMSE scores. This dementia cohort was used to develop a detailed understanding of the healthcare resource utilisation of people with dementia and the potential impact of effective treatments on costs. The study also drew on data from the Office for National Statistics, the MODEM study and the PACSim model.

RESULTS: We project that the number of people with dementia will grow by 40% over the next 15 years, from 982,000 people in 2024 to 1.4 million people in 2040. The associated costs are estimated to be £42 billion in 2024 and projected to more than double to £90 billion by 2040. The annual cost per person increases substantially with increasing disease severity, from £28,700 per person for mild dementia to £80,500 for severe dementia. Healthcare spending makes up 14% of the total cost of dementia, and we estimate only 1.4% of this is spent on diagnosis and treatment.

CONCLUSIONS: The number of people with dementia and the associated costs will rise substantially in the future. The effective use of diagnostic capabilities and available treatments that can delay the progression of symptoms will be critical to reducing this cost burden.