OBJECTIVES: Covid-19 vaccination has been a vital tool in controlling the pandemic, mitigating the disease burden. The evolving nature of the disease however calls for analyses of its trajectory and assessments of cost-effectiveness. Since most of the population have received primary vaccination in many countries, different boosting strategies are now important aspects to evaluate. Novavax has developed the vaccine NVX-CoV2373 against COVID-19 and this study aimed to develop a dynamic transmission model based on recent data and to assess the cost-effectiveness of adding NVX-CoV2373 into the UK vaccination program.

METHODS: The base case scenario compared the addition of the NVX-CoV2373 against the currently implemented COVID-19 vaccination policy in the UK. A literature review was conducted to inform the model design and to identify data on efficacy and safety in previously vaccinated populations, duration of vaccine protection, COVID-19 transmission pattern, disease severity, and mortality rates. Costs associated with vaccination, hospitalizations, treatments, and productivity losses were included. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to explore the robustness of the results and parameter uncertainty.

RESULTS: The literature review identified and screened 480 studies, of which 29 were selected for further consideration in the model design. Eight studies were related to the disease burden of COVID-19, 10 were cost-effectiveness analyses of COVID-19 vaccination strategies, and 11 explored the dynamics of social mixing patterns. The model separated the population into six compartments: susceptible, exposed but not infectious, asymptomatic infectious, pre-symptomatic infectious, symptomatic infectious and recovered with immunity to the infection.

CONCLUSIONS: This study provides an up-to-date economic evaluation of adding NVX-CoV2373 into the UK vaccination program. Such information is important for policymakers, healthcare providers, and other stakeholders to understand the cost-effectiveness of this novel vaccine and to inform future vaccination strategies against COVID-19.