Evaluating the Clinical Impact and Economically Justifiable Price of Annual COVID-19 Vaccination in Germany in an Endemic Setting
Author(s)
Amy Barber, MSc1, Julie Roiz, MSc1, Samantha Greenall, MSc1, Edward Church, MSc2, Andrea Schmetz, MBA3, Stefan Riebel, PhD4, Jingyan Yang, DrPH5, Oliver Witzke, Prof. Dr.6, Afschin Gandjour, Prof. Dr.7.
1Lumanity, London, United Kingdom, 2Lumanity, Sheffield, United Kingdom, 3Director Market Access, BioNTech SE, Mainz, Germany, 4BioNTech SE, Berlin, Germany, 5Pfizer Inc., New York, NY, USA, 6Universitätsklinikum Essen, Essen, Germany, 7Frankfurt School of Finance & Management gGmbH, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
1Lumanity, London, United Kingdom, 2Lumanity, Sheffield, United Kingdom, 3Director Market Access, BioNTech SE, Mainz, Germany, 4BioNTech SE, Berlin, Germany, 5Pfizer Inc., New York, NY, USA, 6Universitätsklinikum Essen, Essen, Germany, 7Frankfurt School of Finance & Management gGmbH, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
OBJECTIVES: STIKO recommends annual COVID-19 vaccination for several groups, including elderly (60+) and individuals with underlying medical conditions (comorbid). This study aims to estimate the clinical impact and economically justifiable price (EJP) of annual vaccination[AG1] with BNT162b2 in an endemic setting, in the recommended populations and working adults in high social contact professions.
METHODS: A decision-tree model was constructed to estimate the clinical and economic impact of COVID-19, and projected burden avoided with BNT162b2. Real-world evidence informed most probabilities of clinical events and cost inputs. Vaccine efficacy was derived from US studies. Post COVID-19 syndrome impact was assessed in scenario analysis due to uncertainty. The EJP was assessed from a societal perspective and included work productivity loss.
RESULTS: The model estimated up to 25.1 million symptomatic infections per year, including 7.5 million in 60+, and 4.7 million in the comorbid population. This translates into an estimated 201,203 hospitalizations and 22,878 COVID-attributable deaths, with 91.7% of deaths in 60+. The total economic burden including productivity loss was estimated €1.4B in 60+, €2.8B in comorbid population, and €7.9B in working adults. Assuming 100% coverage, annual vaccination could prevent 13.5 million symptomatic infections with greatest impact in 60+ (estimated 116,235 hospitalizations and 14,413 deaths avoided). The number needed to vaccinate to prevent one symptomatic infection was 7, 4, 4; one hospitalization 21, 2,226, 4,285; and one death 1,754, 17,949, 34,553 in 60+, comorbid population and working adults, respectively. The EJP at €20,000 per QALY was €109.79 for 60+ and €163.59 for the comorbid population. Inclusion of post-COVID 19 syndrome in sensitivity analyses increased the burden of disease and resulted in 1.4-3.4-fold higher EJPs.
CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 imposes a significant burden on the German population. An annual COVID-19 vaccination program could reduce the clinical burden and provide economic value in Germany for all individuals aged 18+.
METHODS: A decision-tree model was constructed to estimate the clinical and economic impact of COVID-19, and projected burden avoided with BNT162b2. Real-world evidence informed most probabilities of clinical events and cost inputs. Vaccine efficacy was derived from US studies. Post COVID-19 syndrome impact was assessed in scenario analysis due to uncertainty. The EJP was assessed from a societal perspective and included work productivity loss.
RESULTS: The model estimated up to 25.1 million symptomatic infections per year, including 7.5 million in 60+, and 4.7 million in the comorbid population. This translates into an estimated 201,203 hospitalizations and 22,878 COVID-attributable deaths, with 91.7% of deaths in 60+. The total economic burden including productivity loss was estimated €1.4B in 60+, €2.8B in comorbid population, and €7.9B in working adults. Assuming 100% coverage, annual vaccination could prevent 13.5 million symptomatic infections with greatest impact in 60+ (estimated 116,235 hospitalizations and 14,413 deaths avoided). The number needed to vaccinate to prevent one symptomatic infection was 7, 4, 4; one hospitalization 21, 2,226, 4,285; and one death 1,754, 17,949, 34,553 in 60+, comorbid population and working adults, respectively. The EJP at €20,000 per QALY was €109.79 for 60+ and €163.59 for the comorbid population. Inclusion of post-COVID 19 syndrome in sensitivity analyses increased the burden of disease and resulted in 1.4-3.4-fold higher EJPs.
CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 imposes a significant burden on the German population. An annual COVID-19 vaccination program could reduce the clinical burden and provide economic value in Germany for all individuals aged 18+.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2025-11, ISPOR Europe 2025, Glasgow, Scotland
Value in Health, Volume 28, Issue S2
Code
EE435
Topic
Economic Evaluation
Topic Subcategory
Cost/Cost of Illness/Resource Use Studies, Work & Home Productivity - Indirect Costs
Disease
No Additional Disease & Conditions/Specialized Treatment Areas, Vaccines