OBJECTIVES

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) affects ~10% of the global population and is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events, end-stage kidney disease and the need for renal replacement therapies (RRTs). The trajectory of CKD and its related costs are critical considerations for public health and policy planning. Using country-specific, patient-level microsimulations, Inside CKD projects the global clinical and economic burden of CKD from 2021 to 2026.

METHODS

We used the Inside CKD microsimulation to project the economic burden of CKD in the UK and US. We constructed virtual populations using published country-specific data, including demographics, CKD status and associated costs. CKD stages were defined as discrete health states consistent with Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) 2012 recommendations. CKD costs were calculated for diagnosed patients. UK and US costs were based on National Health Service and Medicare spending, respectively. We conducted microsimulation model validation and calibration using established methods for health economics modelling.

RESULTS

The population with diagnosed CKD is projected to increase from 2.29M to 2.62M in the UK and from 6.16M to 7.75M in the US by 2026. The prevalence of patients receiving RRTs is projected to increase from 69,796 to 75,051 cases in the UK and from 797,638 to 823,050 cases in the US by 2026. This correlates with a projected increase in annual healthcare costs associated with CKD from £2.15B to £2.60B in the UK and from $72.72B to $94.41B in the US. The annual healthcare costs associated with RRTs are projected to increase from £0.97B to £1.05B in the UK and from $66.37B to $68.48B in the US by 2026.

CONCLUSIONS

Inside CKD projects that CKD poses a significant challenge to healthcare financing, and highlights the continued need for national policies aimed at early intervention to slow disease progression and reduce healthcare costs.